Wednesday, January 30, 2013

The Brooklyn Kid's Midseason Mailbag

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day:

      These are the top 5 plays from Shaqtin' A Fool--my new favorite segment on Inside the NBA--dating back two weeks ago, but the one you need to peep is Thomas Robinson tee bagging Tyler Zeller at the 1:01 mark. Priceless. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF2ZjJ-TOAc

     Okay, down to brass tacks. As we approach the All-Star Weekend--the NBA's midway point in the season--there are a number of predictions that myself and other NBA aficionados, writers, analysts, and fans made regarding the 2012-13 season. Some predictions were on par (the success of the Knicks), while others were disastrously inaccurate (the success of the Lakers). We have also witnessed consistency in the form of the always-relevant Spurs, as well as pleasant surprise in the performance of the Golden State Warriors. Here are some of the more interesting questions that have been posed to me by my loyal readers (I see you, Brandon!). 

Now that they've been announced, who would YOUR All-Stars be? Did the fans and the coaches get it right?--Shaun from New York City, NY.

ALMOST. But to be honest, both the fans and the coaches slightly botched the All-Star line-up. Here's where the fans messed up:

East Starting 5:

Rajon Rondo  (Tough loss for Boston losing the league's 2nd best point guard.)
Dwyane Wade  (By default, not because he deserves it. Shooting guards need to step up in the East.)
LeBron James        (Duh.)
Carmelo Anthony  (Obviously.)
Tyson Chandler     (Not flashy, but undoubtedly the best two-way center in the East.)

West Starting 5:

Chris "The Effing Man" Paul (Middle name is self-explanatory.)
Kobe Bean Bryant (Biggest waste of a phenomenal season I've seen in a long time.)
James Harden (He's played at a level where he should be a starter for the West... and he can count as a SF, right? Sure, he can.)
Kevin Durant  (MVP.)
Blake Griffin   (Continues to impress me with his high-assist games.)

Who I bounced and why:

     Kevin Garnett- It is pretty unfortunate the extent to which the fan voting format can turn the All-Star starters into a popularity contest. Yes, Garnett is the most important defensive player on one of the top-10 defensive teams in the league (Boston ranks 7th, giving up 100.3 ppg as per NBA.com). However, Boston is a fringe playoff team playing sub .500 basketball and Garnett's offensive output (15.0 ppg, 7.3 ppg, 2.2 apg according to NBA.com) are pretty pedestrian for a starting forward. Garnett starting in the ALL-STAR GAME? Spare me.

     Dwight Howard- His numbers for this season? 16.5 ppg, 12.0 rpg, 2.4 bpg and is shooting about 58% from the field, as per NBA.com. Do not misunderstand--these are phenomenal numbers. Even with Howard's horrible free-throw shooting. Even with his hobbled back situation. Should he be scoring more? Probably yes. BUT, he is playing on a team that plays at the 4th highest pace in the league at 97.0 and he is doing it with guys like Kobe Bryant and a litany of other players who shoot far more often than they defer to Dwight. The reason he should not be starting has less to do with his personal production and far more to do with the Lakers record, which stands at 19-25. For the life of me, I just don't understand how a team with that kind of record could have two starters on the All-Star team. Kobe is having a year for the ages and completely deserves the spot, but there are far too many forwards and centers who are having both good statistical years and are on teams with winning records in the West (Marc Gasol and Tim Duncan to name a couple) to start Dwight Howard. It just ain't right.
      Now, I admit it is a little strange that with the addition of James Harden to my West's starting line-up, that I have 4 perimeter guys in Harden, CP3, Kobe, and Durant. My defense is this: Durant has played the 4 before and Griffin has seen increased time this season at the center position in the Clippers' smaller line-ups. Also, with a starting 5 as offensively explosive as this one, they have no real need for a true center.

East Reserves:

Luol Deng
Paul George
Kyrie Irving
Jrue Holiday
Joakim Noah
Brook Lopez
Josh Smith

West Reserves:

Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry
Tony Parker
Zach Randolph
Tim Duncan
LaMarcus Aldridge
Marc Gasol

Who I bounced and why:

     Tyson Chandler- Well, I started him over Garnett. Brook Lopez has replaced Chandler's spot because he is the only player in the NBA averaging more than 18 ppg, 7 rpg and 2 bpg and also happens to be playing on a team playing over .600. 

     Chris Bosh- Are you kidding me? He's one of the Heat's biggest players and spends more time in the paint than any other member of the team, yet is somehow grabbing one less rebound than LeBron James (Bosh is averaging 7.5). Whenever there are news reports of LeBron complaining about members of his team playing as if they're "unmotivated" or "disinterested," Bosh is the first player I think of! It's most certainly not Dwyane Wade, who has simply all but donated his jump shot to the Salvation Army. Josh Smith gets Bosh's spot because the only other player averaging over 16 ppg, 8 rpg, 4 apg and 1 spg, is LeBron James. Smith also gets the spot over Bosh because he just... well, cares. I really wanted to find a spot for JR Smith, but these are unfair times.

    James Harden- I replaced Dwight Howard with The Beard. Marc Gasol gets the nod over Howard on the reserves list because he's the best defender, on the 2nd best defensive team in the league (Memphis is allowing 96.8 ppg as per NBA.com), as well as arguably the best passing center in the modern game (3.6 apg). 

   David Lee- First off, I love David Lee. I loved seeing him blossom on the Knicks and I've thoroughly enjoyed the success he's had since leaving and earning his well-deserved contract. Having said that, it is impossible to argue that Lee has been more valuable for Golden State's success than Stephen Curry. Not only does Curry lead one of the top ranked NBA offenses in scoring with 21.0 ppg and 6.4 apg, he also leads the team in PER with 19.89 and is ranked 30th in the league in that department, as per ESPN.com. Lee--the team's second leading scorer and leading rebounder--has obviously been the Warriors' second most important player, which has left many critics scratching their heads as to why Curry did not receive the selection.

     As an aside, not that it counts for anything but, I call the West winning this year. Just way too much offense for the East to keep up with (though I'll never rule out Westbrook chucking the entire team out of the game). Also, Biggest-Underrated-Feel-Good-Moment of the All-Star Break: Won't it be nice seeing Durant, Westbrook, and Harden teamed up again? How precious.

Which is the best backcourt in the league?--Brandon from Atlanta, GA.

     It's between Deron Williams/Joe JohnsonStephen Curry/Klay Thompson, and Tony Parker/Manu Ginobili. However, considering that 1) the Spurs have the best record in the league 2) the Spurs are the only team in the league to be top 5 in Pace, Offensive Rating, and Defensive Rating, as per NBA.com, and 3) Tony Parker (8th) and Manu Ginobili (19th) are the only backcourt duo to both be ranked top 20 in PER, I'm going to go ahead and say it's Parker/Ginobili. 


    *Funny observation: When looking up the top ranked players in Player Efficiency Rating, I noticed Brook Lopez (4th) and Andray Blatche (14th) are also top 20 in PER, yet according to basketball-reference.com these two almost never take the floor together. Though they essentially play the same position, considering the 18-foot range and back to the basket moves that both of these players possess, it is somewhat surprising that neither Avery Johnson nor P.J. Carlesimo have attempted experimenting with playing them simultaneously in a high-low basketball scheme. It is rare to have two big men who are exceptional at scoring both on the low block and at the elbows. Teams that implement both (Memphis' Gasol-Randolph combo) usually prove to be a handful in the paint.

     Honorable omissions: Steve Nash/Kobe Bryant and Brandon Jennings/Monta Ellis. Neither the Lakers nor the Bucks have been successful enough to support a claim to these being productive backcourts. Success is determined by the Win-Loss column, not offensive production or efficiency. 

Will the Celtics make the playoffs without Rondo?--Francesco from Guilford, CT.

     Barring a resurgent Andrew Bynum return, yes. But they will not win more than one game in a playoff series against the Heat.

Which team in the East stands the best chance of unseating the Miami Heat's run to the Finals?--College Mike from Chicago, IL.

     Well, "College Mike," you'll be happy to hear its the Bulls. Boasting the 3rd highest defensive rating in the league at 97.6, the Bulls are undoubtedly the team Miami secretly fears running into in playoffs. Chicago is for real: the Bulls' bullish defense combined with Carlos Boozer's rediscovery of his offensive touch and Derrick Rose (arguably the NBA's hardest worker) returning with 10 added pounds of muscle, as well as a more finely-tuned shot... makes me shudder for the Knicks. And you have yet to see a fast break like the one Rose-Robinson-Deng-Gibson-Noah are capable of. If this line-up is never used, it will be a waste of potentially the highest-energy line-up ever. Believe that.


Now that its midseason, which award picks (MVP, DPOY, etc.) do you think you got correct  and which picks do you think you got wrong?--Billy from Woburn, MA.

     MVP: I originally claimed it would be Kevin Durant and I'm sticking with that decision.

     Scoring Champ: In December I said it would be Kobe, but with all of the offensive (pun intended) ups and downs in Lakerland and the recent tear that Durant has been on, I'm going to say that Durant gets it for the 4th season in a row.

     Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka was my pick, but this one is a pretty tough race--Tim Duncan, Marc Gasol, and Roy Hibbert are all making strong cases. Based on the fact that Indiana is currently the league's number one ranked defensive team and that Roy Hibbert is their most defensive important player with 2.64 blocks per game (good for 4th in NBA, as per ESPN.com), I'm going to say Hibbert gets DPOY. Though I still am pulling for my original pick of Ibaka. The Thunder are the 6th ranked defensive team and Ibaka is 2nd overall in blocks with 2.79 per game. I like the idea of the Thunder's roster notching MVP, the Scoring Champ title, and Defensive Player of the Year. It's a mark of dominance.

     Most Improved: I originally picked Jrue Holiday and now that he has been named an All-Star, I think that only strengthens my case. If you don't believe it, watch these highlights where Holiday torched the Knicks last week, including teaching Pablo Prigioni how to dougie at the 0:48 mark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWBDCb2j_uY.

    Coach of the Year: Lionel Hollins was my first choice, but now it seems like all of the momentum is behind Mike Woodson and Mark Jackson. Considering Memphis is sporting the 2nd highest rated defense in the league and currently sits at the 4th seed in a much more competitive Western Conference, I'm going to stick with Hollins.

    Rookie of the Year: If you think its going to be anyone not named Damian Lillard, you haven't been watching the NBA. I picked him in December and he hasn't slowed down.

Which team has the best jerseys in the league? I'm talking the total package--both home and away. And which team has the worst? Alternate jerseys don't count since they hardly get worn and are solely for spoiled kids devoted fans with expendable incomes.--Ben from DC.

     First off, I agree with you about the alternate jerseys--they're almost never cool and are almost always obscure. In fact, to this day I still remember the worst/most confusing alternates I've ever laid eyes on: the Wizards' gold jerseys and black shorts that not only made them look like an AAU team from the Bronx, but even graced the cover of the once-respected NBA Live series (when Gilbert Arenas was still relevant). Where is Gil these days by the way? We'll never forget you, Hibachi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm2XO28YRYU.



Best JerseysThe Golden State Warriors. They're just the perfect combination of old school with the "The City" logo and the fresh colors.



Worst: The Utah Jazz. If they were the New Orleans Jazz, the theme would make sense, but... for a team based in a Mormon city, none of this makes sense/does anything for anyone. Can't we just let the Hornets become the Jazz again, and let Utah be the Pelicans? Or the Utah Polygamists?

Wait, let's run with that idea for a second... The Utah Polygamists' mascot could be as simple as ONE GUY walking around with the cheerleading squad!
Best mascot ever? I think yes.



Bonus Round! Most Boring Jerseys: The Detroit Pistons. It's not that they're bad... they're just so PLAIN. No flair, no insignias, no nothing. "In fashion, we must always take risks... otherwise there is no moving forward."--Said some fashionista... somewhere. The Pistons just play it far too simple and too safe. Personally, I miss the Pistons' era of Grant Hill--remember the little horse insignia?? I LOVED the little horse!


Cheers.

Friday, January 4, 2013

Hired Guns

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day: Having any affiliation with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Minnesota Timberwolves currently hold the 8th and final playoff seed in the West, and I'm not entirely sure the Lakers can unseat them; especially as Ricky Rubio gets healthier. Nash has his work cut out for him, to say the least. But honestly... is there any greater satisfaction than watching Mike D'Antoni fail? (Thinking...) Nope, still feels awesome.


     Though the long coveted and highly touted Most Valuable Player award dominates weekly discussion on NBA.com and ESPN, this season's Sixth Man of the Year award has been one of the closer and more fascinating races I have noted in many years. Despite recent surges by the Spurs' Manu Ginobili, make no mistake--this is a three-man race amongst the NBA's two best bad-shotmakers in Jamal Crawford and JR Smith, as well as the league's best good-shot taker in Kevin Martin. Though sharing similarities in purpose, each player brings something unique when coming off of the bench. What must ultimately be decided is which of these Sixth Men is the most essential to his team's success? Let's look at their resumes.

Jamal Crawford: 16.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 Steals, 90% FT, .352 3P%, 42% FG over 29 Min.

According to hoopdata.com, his PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is 17.05.

Los Angeles Clippers 2012-13 Record: 25-8

JR Smith: 16.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 Steals, 80% FT, .352 3P%, 42% FG over 33 Min.

According to hoopdata.com, his PER is 16.29.

New York Knicks 2012-13 Record: 22-10

Kevin Martin: 15.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 Steals, 92% FT, .450 3P%, 45% FG over 29 Min.

According to hoopdata.com, his PER is 17.32.

Oklahoma City Thunder 2012-13 Record: 24-7

     Quick apologies to Jarrett Jack, but his recent surge does not outweigh the consistently exceptional performances of these other three players, especially in regards to the elite levels their respective teams have reached. Crawford, Smith and Martin are all members of teams in the top 2 seeds of their conferences; while the Warriors sit at the 5th seed in the West with a record of 22-10 (yes I realize this is identical to the Knicks' record). No doubt the Warriors have surprised everyone this season, but they have also had the 2nd easiest schedule in the Western Conference thus far; it is still too early to say how much of their success has been a flash in the pan.

     Now if we were to judge Sixth Man of the Year based solely on raw stats, JR Smith would win hands down. If we were to judge based on the Win-Loss column of their respective teams, Kevin Martin would take home the prize. Martin would also win if we were judging based on Player Efficiency Rating. And Jamal Crawford would win if the award was based off of who makes their individual defender look the most foolish on a consistent basis (oh hey, Ray Allen! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MAkp5BmJnY). That crossover was so filthy, I'm pretty sure it  made Ryan Hollins (Crawford's own teammate) fall as well. Unfortunately, there are no style points in the NBA.

     Although the stats of these three players are very similar, they begin to look a bit different when you compare the average field goal attempts of each player.

Jamal Crawford: 13.2 Field Goal Attempts per game.

JR Smith: 14.8 Field Goal Attempts per game.

Kevin Martin: 10.4 Field Goal Attempts per game.

     Much of Martin's reputation for being highly efficient stems from this statistic as he scores almost on par with Crawford and Smith, while taking 3-4 less shots per game. Martin's shot-selection and efficiency is especially useful for Oklahoma City when considering that Kevin Durant, the team's leading scorer, is often forced to have shot attempts notoriously taken away from him by Russell Westbrook. Though JR Smith averages only 1.2 more PPG than Martin, while taking 4.4 more shots, it should be said that he is the only other Knick besides 'Melo who can create his own shot. Martin is the third/fourth offensive option following Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka (making it easier for Martin to get his shots), whereas Smith is the second option. It is also worth noting that even though Smith shoots the most out of these three, he also leads all three in Assists-Per-Game. Crawford's lofty amount of shot attempts actually hurts his case--out of these three players, Crawford undoubtedly has the most complete team surrounding him (the Clippers' bench is better than many other starting five tandems in the league), and thus should be shooting slightly less and assisting slightly more. In the Clippers' Wins and Losses this season, Crawford averaged nearly an identical amount of Field Goal Attempts (13.2 in Wins and 13.3 in Losses). However, in Wins he averaged 2.9 APG as opposed to only 1.6 APG in Losses--clearly indicating that the Clippers faired better when Crawford got others involved.

     In the end, their cases for Sixth Man of the Year stack up like this:

Kevin Martin:
-Highest Player Efficiency Rating of the three.
-Best team record of the three.
-Most efficient scorer.

JR Smith:
-Best overall statistical performance of the three.
-Second most important offensive player on his team.
-Has hit two game-winning shots this season (I don't know how important of a factor this actually is, but I think it at least deserves to be mentioned).

Jamal Crawford:
-Does this every night, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRNFqs2-ufU.
-Is the NBA's All-Time Leader in 4-Point Plays (really reaching here).


     Ultimately, I believe it will be a coin-toss between JR Smith and Kevin Martin. Martin's overall body of work surpasses Smith's, however Smith's individual performance is more important to the overall success of his team. In the end, following all of the political drama that came with replacing reigning Sixth Man of the Year, James Harden, Martin will most likely get the nod. Though he is certainly not a lock for Sixth Man of the Year, if Smith does not get named as an All-Star reserve that will indeed be a travesty. Of the shooting guards in the East, the only shooting guards outperforming Smith have been Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson (barely). If the All-Star game is really meant for the entertainment of us as fans, then Smith has not only earned a spot--he's earned Joe Johnson's spot. Believe that.