Friday, January 4, 2013

Hired Guns

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day: Having any affiliation with the Los Angeles Lakers. The Minnesota Timberwolves currently hold the 8th and final playoff seed in the West, and I'm not entirely sure the Lakers can unseat them; especially as Ricky Rubio gets healthier. Nash has his work cut out for him, to say the least. But honestly... is there any greater satisfaction than watching Mike D'Antoni fail? (Thinking...) Nope, still feels awesome.


     Though the long coveted and highly touted Most Valuable Player award dominates weekly discussion on NBA.com and ESPN, this season's Sixth Man of the Year award has been one of the closer and more fascinating races I have noted in many years. Despite recent surges by the Spurs' Manu Ginobili, make no mistake--this is a three-man race amongst the NBA's two best bad-shotmakers in Jamal Crawford and JR Smith, as well as the league's best good-shot taker in Kevin Martin. Though sharing similarities in purpose, each player brings something unique when coming off of the bench. What must ultimately be decided is which of these Sixth Men is the most essential to his team's success? Let's look at their resumes.

Jamal Crawford: 16.5 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 Steals, 90% FT, .352 3P%, 42% FG over 29 Min.

According to hoopdata.com, his PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is 17.05.

Los Angeles Clippers 2012-13 Record: 25-8

JR Smith: 16.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 Steals, 80% FT, .352 3P%, 42% FG over 33 Min.

According to hoopdata.com, his PER is 16.29.

New York Knicks 2012-13 Record: 22-10

Kevin Martin: 15.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 Steals, 92% FT, .450 3P%, 45% FG over 29 Min.

According to hoopdata.com, his PER is 17.32.

Oklahoma City Thunder 2012-13 Record: 24-7

     Quick apologies to Jarrett Jack, but his recent surge does not outweigh the consistently exceptional performances of these other three players, especially in regards to the elite levels their respective teams have reached. Crawford, Smith and Martin are all members of teams in the top 2 seeds of their conferences; while the Warriors sit at the 5th seed in the West with a record of 22-10 (yes I realize this is identical to the Knicks' record). No doubt the Warriors have surprised everyone this season, but they have also had the 2nd easiest schedule in the Western Conference thus far; it is still too early to say how much of their success has been a flash in the pan.

     Now if we were to judge Sixth Man of the Year based solely on raw stats, JR Smith would win hands down. If we were to judge based on the Win-Loss column of their respective teams, Kevin Martin would take home the prize. Martin would also win if we were judging based on Player Efficiency Rating. And Jamal Crawford would win if the award was based off of who makes their individual defender look the most foolish on a consistent basis (oh hey, Ray Allen! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MAkp5BmJnY). That crossover was so filthy, I'm pretty sure it  made Ryan Hollins (Crawford's own teammate) fall as well. Unfortunately, there are no style points in the NBA.

     Although the stats of these three players are very similar, they begin to look a bit different when you compare the average field goal attempts of each player.

Jamal Crawford: 13.2 Field Goal Attempts per game.

JR Smith: 14.8 Field Goal Attempts per game.

Kevin Martin: 10.4 Field Goal Attempts per game.

     Much of Martin's reputation for being highly efficient stems from this statistic as he scores almost on par with Crawford and Smith, while taking 3-4 less shots per game. Martin's shot-selection and efficiency is especially useful for Oklahoma City when considering that Kevin Durant, the team's leading scorer, is often forced to have shot attempts notoriously taken away from him by Russell Westbrook. Though JR Smith averages only 1.2 more PPG than Martin, while taking 4.4 more shots, it should be said that he is the only other Knick besides 'Melo who can create his own shot. Martin is the third/fourth offensive option following Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka (making it easier for Martin to get his shots), whereas Smith is the second option. It is also worth noting that even though Smith shoots the most out of these three, he also leads all three in Assists-Per-Game. Crawford's lofty amount of shot attempts actually hurts his case--out of these three players, Crawford undoubtedly has the most complete team surrounding him (the Clippers' bench is better than many other starting five tandems in the league), and thus should be shooting slightly less and assisting slightly more. In the Clippers' Wins and Losses this season, Crawford averaged nearly an identical amount of Field Goal Attempts (13.2 in Wins and 13.3 in Losses). However, in Wins he averaged 2.9 APG as opposed to only 1.6 APG in Losses--clearly indicating that the Clippers faired better when Crawford got others involved.

     In the end, their cases for Sixth Man of the Year stack up like this:

Kevin Martin:
-Highest Player Efficiency Rating of the three.
-Best team record of the three.
-Most efficient scorer.

JR Smith:
-Best overall statistical performance of the three.
-Second most important offensive player on his team.
-Has hit two game-winning shots this season (I don't know how important of a factor this actually is, but I think it at least deserves to be mentioned).

Jamal Crawford:
-Does this every night, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRNFqs2-ufU.
-Is the NBA's All-Time Leader in 4-Point Plays (really reaching here).


     Ultimately, I believe it will be a coin-toss between JR Smith and Kevin Martin. Martin's overall body of work surpasses Smith's, however Smith's individual performance is more important to the overall success of his team. In the end, following all of the political drama that came with replacing reigning Sixth Man of the Year, James Harden, Martin will most likely get the nod. Though he is certainly not a lock for Sixth Man of the Year, if Smith does not get named as an All-Star reserve that will indeed be a travesty. Of the shooting guards in the East, the only shooting guards outperforming Smith have been Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson (barely). If the All-Star game is really meant for the entertainment of us as fans, then Smith has not only earned a spot--he's earned Joe Johnson's spot. Believe that.

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