The Wild, Wild Westbrook

By Rico Bautista

     Last night's Thunder-Spurs game was one of the best regular season games I've ever sat through the entirety of. I had been greatly anticipating this game for several reasons. Last year's Thunder-Spurs matchup in the Western Conference Finals was one of the most competitive playoffs series from recent memory. It was The New Kids on the Block versus The Usual Suspects. The two best Western Conference regular season records were being pitted against one another. Both teams featured an exciting, uptempo style of basketball and both teams featured a "Big Three." Last night's game was a grudge match for the older San Antonio team that had been dethroned by the New Kids on the Block just 5 months earlier. And more importantly, both teams would be on equal footing as both teams would be playing without the third member of their Big Three--the Spurs' Manu Ginobili was injured and the Thunder's James Harden had recently been traded. Both of these players having shared similar roles in being playmakers brought off of the bench made the game even more serendipitous. Harden and Ginobili had been pivotal swing players that each team had to make special preparations for in last year's playoffs. How would the Spurs' defense adjust to the Thunder's secondary line-up now that they no longer had Harden? What different problems would Kevin Martin, Harden's replacement, present? And on the Thunder's end, would the Spurs compensate for Ginobili's absence and risk playing Tony Parker and Tim Duncan for longer minutes than usual? How well could they be expected to shoot after logging more than 34 minutes each the night before?

     Admittedly, its only the beginning of the season, so the longterm importance of these early games are minimized. But each team knows they might see the other again in the playoffs. This makes every regular season matchup a learning opportunity. Here's what I learned: This Thunder team will live or die based on the mental errors of Russell Westbrook. Despite having a game-changing athleticism, despite having some of the best possible complimentary pieces in the entire league around him, Westbrook was still outplayed by Tony Parker for two reasons: discipline and patience. Parker did not shoot well for most of the game. He shot 6-for-13 on the night. However, for the entire game Parker let his shots come to him and didn't force anything. With the exception of one miraculous fade away 3 he had to throw up to tie the game, none of Parker's shots were unreasonable. Westbrook? There literally came a point last night when I was cringing everytime Westbrook touched the ball. I planned watching this game with the intention of heavily scrutinizing Kevin Martin and comparing how well he stacked up to James Harden within the Thunder's offense. I had low expectations, but Martin was actually pretty good! He was incredibly efficient (his hallmark) and shot 4-for-10--not a great percentage, but he didn't miss a free throw and finished the game with 15 points including a game-tieing 3-pointer with 3:32 left to go. Harden's most impressive skill--passing--was what critics said the Thunder would miss the most from him. Yet, Martin succeeded in getting other guys involved and finished with 5 assists. Considering it was their first game together, I expect for Scott Brooks to get Martin even more acclimated and productive within OKC's offense as the season advances. But back to Westbrook. With 28.3 seconds remaining all I thought was, "ok--Durant time. He's great at these late game shots. Hopefully, Westbrook doesn't shoot the ball." And he didn't--Kawhi Leonard's high-octane defense got San Antonio the ball back. But I still found myself blaming Westbrook. Probably because after the first quarter, he shot 3-FOR-15 FROM THE FLOOR. NBA.com blamed Westbrook for giving a "lazy pass," but if we're being fair and honest, he can't be blamed--the turnover resulted as a combination of good defense by Leonard and Durant doing a bad job of coming to the ball. You can see for yourself at the 3:15 mark of this highlight reel from last night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaYOnYdyzKM. So that wasn't Westbrook's fault. The next play was. And the next play completely summed up for me the difference between a player like Westbrook and a player like Parker. Parker sticks to the game plan. Westbrook improvises whenever he feels like it. Parker trusts his teammates. Westbrook forgets he has teammates. Westbrook goes for the flashy play. Parker goes for the win. That play was 100% drawn up for Parker and it was executed perfectly because he ran off the 2-3 screens, got hit with the ball where he wanted it and then the probability of him making it (which probably was already higher after he hit a 3 falling out of bounds just seconds earlier) skyrocketed because no one was guarding him. Just humor me and WATCH what Westbrook does: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqu1sVzOvVs. It was vintage San Antonio and vintage Gregg Popovich. And Westbrook following the ball and gambling for a steal as opposed to, say, sticking to his man who had just tied the game on the previous play? Vintage Russell Westbrook. It's moments like these when I wonder if it might've been wiser to give the Harden that 5-year deal and trade Westbrook. First off, for what teams are willing to pay point guards these days, Oklahoma would've gotten more in return for trading Westbrook than they did for Harden. Second off, as was evident in the previous night when he had a career-high 12 assists, Harden LIKES getting his teammates involved. If Harden can notch 12 assists in playing starter's minutes when passing to the likes OMER ASIK and JEREMY LIN, imagine what he could do with Westbrook's minutes and the Thunder's roster. 

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Northwest Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Northwest Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day:  The unbelievable awkwardness of tonight's Championship Ring Ceremony. When Miami was presented with their rings and Boston was in the locker room... what did Ray Allen do? Did he stand 20 feet off from Miami? Did he pretend to talk to the coaching staff? I didn't notice, but I couldn't imagine that not being weird. Also, prediction: I expect Boston to be effing pissed after having to witness Miami be crowned in front of them and this will cause them to play with added motivation tonight. Boston will keep the game close tonight... barring LeBron going Game 6-mode on them again.

     Welcome to the Northwest Division. Home to the NBA's best power forwards, best scoring team, best shot blocker, and best individual scorer. Let's get to it.

Portland Trailblazers (finishes 35-47)

Finishes for 11th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Northwest.

     This team will not be terrible this season. They will compete, they will have electrifying moments, and Damian Lillard will quickly become a fan-favorite in Rip City. But the difference between them making the playoffs and being a lottery-team again is Brandon Roy. This is just to say that Portland's roster is just one scoring threat away from being a playoff-contender. LeMarcus Aldridge is the 2nd best, young power forward in the game right now behind Kevin Love (yes, I am taking Aldridge over Blake Griffin--Aldridge brings a more complete package and is not as prone to injury). Aldridge still needs some help on both ends of the floor--he needs teammates that can create their own shots (á la Roy) and guys who can help him on the boards--this is a huge reason why the Blazers were in the hunt to land Andrew Bynum. Now their hopes rest on the development of the 7'1 Meyers Leonard--Portland's rookie center who was drafted for his upside to become a great defensive force. But until Leonard blossoms, the Blazers will pair Aldridge with J.J. Hickson. Hickson, after a disappointing season in Cleveland, was moved for his last 19 games to Portland where he averaged 15.1 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game. If Hickson can continue this trend it will take enough pressure off of Aldridge for him to have another All-Star season.
     The most interesting facet of this year's Blazers team has to be Damian Lillard. He has received comparisons to Russell Westbrook, but I don't see it--he's not as explosive and is a much better shooter coming into the league than Westbrook was, although I will say that they have approximately the same swag. If you don't already think Lillard will be making ridiculous fashion statements in post game press conferences, you've got another thing coming. Outside of his style of play, what will make Lillard fun to follow is how far he makes a push for Rookie of the Year. Though most NBA columnists and experts agree that Anthony Davis is a lock for ROY, Lillard is maybe the only other rookie that anyone thinks can present a challenge to Davis: http://www.nba.com/news/nba-com-2012-13-season-predictions/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt3c.
     Even with the excitement of Aldridge playing well and watching Damian Lillard compete for ROY, this Portland team will not be making strides until Nicolas Batum elevates his game to the next level and starts earning the $10.45 million he will be making this year. Also, as solid as he's been for the Blazers, Wesley Matthews has stopped improving. His development was so mercurial over the past few seasons that I believed he would eventually become a 20-point scorer, but his growth stunted last year. Then again... Matthews had to share floor time with Jamal Crawford this past season. Even though Matthews' minutes did not go down, he often had to switch over to point guard (in part due to the pudgy Felton) and got to the free throw line less often as Crawford assumed scoring duty. Perhaps now that he's no longer sharing minutes with Crawford, Matthews will be productive again. Either way, Sasha Pavolic is Matthews' backup this season and I just don't see how any coach could have him on the floor for more than 10 minutes per game. It would just be blatantly irresponsible to play him any longer than that. 

Utah Jazz (finishes 38-44)

Finishes for 8th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Northwest.

    
     Ugh, Utah... talk about a team in desperate need of an identity. This has got to be my least favorite type of team, hands down. Teams that hover around mediocrity for years instead of just retooling easily become the most boring ones amongst fans. And the problem is simple: this team has just TOO many good big men and not enough minutes to go around. On NBA.com's preview coverage of the Jazz, Sekou Smith discusses Derrick Favors' development over the summer with regards to earning playing time: "But how do you justify playing him [Favors] over Millsap, who since taking over as the starting power forward when Carlos Boozer left as a free agent in 2010, has been the model of power forward consistency by averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds?" I'll tell you, Sekou. You deal Millsap! Sure, Millsap is consistent, but he won't win you games. Favors was the crucial piece in the Deron Williams trade because he had so much upside, but you're shortchanging yourself if you limit that potential to under 30 minutes a game. Millsap is not going to improve--he's been basically the same over the past two seasons and you know what to expect for him. There are plenty of teams in the NBA who could use a 17-and-8 post player. Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Orlando--thats three right there! I could completely understand keeping all four big men (Favors, Millsap, Al Jefferson, and Enes Kanter) if Utah was one of the better teams in the West. Under those circumstances, it would be easy getting starting-quality big men to buy into the team-first concept and come off of the bench. But those aren't the circumstances. Utah is a fringe-playoff team. And in a league dominated by perimeter players, Utah is way behind. They absolutely upgraded by bringing in Mo Williams and Randy Foye, but despite whatever Mo Williams thinks of himself, both he and Foye are better coming off of the bench. Take a gamble: deal two of your big men (Millsap and Kanter--Al Jefferson is good for 20-and-10 almost every night) for an upgrade at the perimeter (read: AARON AFFLALO) and be done with it. Or you can just start guys like Gordon Hayward (who shot .182 from the field in the playoffs) and bury your 6'6 point guard lottery-pick, Alec Burks (remember him?) on the bench. 

Minnesota Timberwolves (finishes 41-41)

Finishes for 8th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Northwest.

     Does anybody feel worse for a team than they do for the Timberwolves? Injuries not only derailed their phenomenal run at the postseason last year, but they might also prevent Minnesota from joining the fray in late April this year as well. Until Love gets back in a few weeks the Wolves still have enough talent to put a bandaid on their loss-column, but their hopes at staying .500 depend on the performances of 3 unpredictable players. The first and most important of those players is Brandon Roy. I've seen a few of his games in the preseason and I have to admit... he's looking like ol' Roy again, but the question mark will be his conditioning. I think Roy, along with Nikola Pekovic, can take on the brunt of the scoring load until Love returns, but Rick Adelman will have to keep an eye on Roy's minutes. The second player the Wolves need to help keep them in the mix is Andrei Kirilenko--if he can give them even 80% of what he was producing in the Summer Olympics, the Wolves will be much better on both ends of the floor. AK-47 put up 17.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game this summer... and he usually guarded the opposing team's best player. The third guy the Wolves need to step up until Love's return is Pekovic. The Neanderthal-looking 2nd year big man put up 13.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game last season while shooting .564 from the floor (all over 27 minutes of play). Now entering his 3rd year, Pekovic and Love will form a massive front court that could legitimately lead all PF-C combinations in the NBA in rebounding. 
     Once the NBA's best power forward is locked and loaded, the Wolves will once again be in position to make a run at the playoffs, but it won't be until Rubio is healthy again that they'll pose a legitimate threat. That is no knock to Luke Ridnour--he can run this team decently enough, sure. But when Rubio was on the floor last year, this Wolves team could compete with almost anyone. I can only imagine how playing Rubio with B-Roy would make for an even more lethal combination. I love Rubio's game--he's Steve Nash minus the shooting. Yet, makes up for it by being a great defender--Rubio finished 2nd in steals per game last year at 2.22... only Chris Paul had a better percentage. 
     The most undersold aspect of this team has got to be their bench--I'd even argue that sport one of the top-5 benches in the league. They're featuring two guys who have played for NBA Champions and title-contenders before and know exactly who they are and what their game is. Of course, I can only be referring to JJ Barea (vaya Boricua!) and Greg Stiemsma. Barea and "Stiemsmanity" are both hustle players that simply outwork everybody else to get results--Tom Thibodeau would LOVE having these guys on his Bench Mob. The rest of their bench? Chase Budinger (buckets), Alexey Shved (great passer), and Derrick Williams. Make no mistake--after being massively out-swagged by rookie rival Kyrie Irving last year, Williams (the 2nd pick of the 2012 Draft--shocking, I know) will be out to prove his worth... unless playing a year with Michael Beasley and Darko Milicic permanently changed Williams' standards for how a 2nd pick in the Draft should measure himself. 

Denver Nuggets (finishes 52-30)

Finishes for 4th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Northwest.

     Here they are--officially the most dangerous team to play in the postseason. Most teams will struggle to play at the Nuggets' pace and I believe most of their losses this season will come from Denver's deficiencies as opposed to being outperformed.
     I see two staggering flaws in this season's Nuggets: 1) If you saw Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried play in any of the preseason action, you will have noticed that he looked lost on offense at times. Playing with hustle and high-energy will only get The Manimal so far. For this team to run with the best in the West, he's going to have to improve his awareness on offense... especially the simple things like passing and catching. 2) Who can they count on for threes besides Danilo Gallinari? Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, and Corey Brewer will occasionally hit them, but Denver hasn't really found a way to fill the 3-point shooting hole left by Aaron Afflalo's departure. To be honest, I don't really have much more to say about this team except that between their rate of play and JaVale McGee's antics, the Nuggets will be the most entertaining team to watch this season. Believe that.

Oklahoma City Thunder (finishes 64-18)

Finishes for 1st in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Northwest.

*Finishes for Most Wins in the NBA.

**2012-2013 NBA Champs.

    
     Even if the Thunder finish with the best record in the league, Durant will most likely not receive the MVP award. LeBron just does too much for his team in every statistical category for him not to get it. Many critics believe Durant needed to improve his defense to take his next step as a player and make himself a more viable MVP candidate. Even if this happens (and judging by Durant's trajectory, it will), LeBron will still put up numbers close to a triple-double that Durant never will--not because he can't, but because he doesn't need to and it is not his role. Durant's seemingly unlimited range discourages his passing and I almost wonder if LeBron was as good a shooter as Durant (he's close, but no cigar), would he be less inclined to pass? Either way, the King is the preseason MVP-fave and for good reason--no one in NBA history has ever combined the athleticism, superb passing, and ability to play and defend every position the way LeBron has. Bill Simmons has referred to LeBron multiple times as Larry Bird 2.0 and as much as I love that comparison, I'm not even sure it goes far enough. Yet, Durant's ceiling is just as high. I noted this on Facebook last year when watching the Playoffs--Durant has the physical dimensions of Hakeem Olajuwon and the offensive skill set of Kobe Bryant. Judging by his lithe body type, Durant will likely never put on the kind of muscle that has made James a tank, but he doesn't need to. His jumpshot, the length of his arms, and his athleticism alone allow him to bypass and go over defenders. What he needs now are new wrinkles in his game. You can see that after losing to the Mavericks two summers ago, he learned from the defeat and added some aspects of Dirk Nowitski's game to his repertoire--most notably that one-footed jumper that Dirk loves: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQXlfMhwUoo. But for him to take the Thunder to new heights, Durant will need to do what both Kobe Bryant and LeBron James has done--he will need to improve his post-play. I'm not suggesting that he takes Olajuwon's summer classes as Kobe and LeBron have done before him, but it sure wouldn't hurt either. Oklahoma City can only go as far as Durant can take them and having an inside-outside game would be ideal for the 6'9 forward. 
     Sad though it was, I don't believe losing James Harden will prove to be a season-changing decision. Kevin Martin is a proven shooting guard and Jeremy Lamb's contributions could be quite valuable, even as a rookie. I can't wait to see how Lamb develops as he enters his 1st season alongside such a young core with a team-first attitude. I don't imagine him failing to improve running with Durant and Russell Westbrook for a full season.
     Outside of Durant's leadership this season, the second most important variable will be Westbrook's shot-selection. Westbrook was notorious for shooting his team in and out of games, so he will need to improve picking his spots and when he should take over offensively if he wants the Thunder to make it past the more patient title-contenders. The last important variable will be the play of Serge Ibaka. Ibaka has gotten better every season and still has so much room for improvement. If he can continue the overall ascension in his game, it will make OKC a juggernaut on both ends of the floor. This season I expect Ibaka to get the nod for Defensive Player of the Year... especially after he and Kendrick Perkins give Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol fits in the Western Conference Finals.

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Pacific Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Pacific Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day:  Hurricane Sandy for (potentially) delaying some of the NBA Tip Off games tomorrow. I don't actually see this happening, yet none of Commissioner Stern's decisions surprise me these days.

     The Pacific Division is unique in that it features the NBA's two most competitive leaders, as well as constant MVP candidates. Chris Paul, who has never won the MVP award (but has come damn close), will be pitted against a team that features two former MVP winners, as well as a three-time Defensive Player of the Year. God help him.

Golden State Warriors (finishes 21-61)

Finishes for 15th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Pacific.

     This season's Golden State roster has undoubtedly improved from last year... but a turd sandwich with cheese is still a turd sandwich. Personally, I've always found it difficult to have confidence in players with a history of injuries... especially when those players suffer repeat injuries. Golden State's two most important players this season, Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, have suffered a litany of injuries throughout their careers and usually get hit by the injury bug right when they happen to be playing their best. For Golden State to scrap their way into an 8th-seed playoff spot in a highly competitive Western Conference, these two will need to remain healthy all season.
     Bogut's injury woes are most likely the biggest reason for the Warriors' signing of Carl Landry. Though David Lee has always been a strong rebounder, he's never been particularly effective at defending pick-and-roll offenses or protecting the rim. Andris Biedrins used to be a serviceable center, but his production has scaled wayyyy back of late and his free throw shooting makes him a liability to keep on the floor. Not only did Biedrins struggle to get to the free throw line last season (he took only 9 free throws in 47 GAMES), but only managed to make one. Though a bit undersized, Landry provides a hard-nosed work ethic on the defensive end every time he takes the floor and is as efficient a post-scorer as they come (Landry shoots .535 from the field for his career). His game isn't pretty--he has a burly, bowl-you-over style of scoring the ball, but he's a great locker room guy and has been described as "The Ultimate Team Player" in this highlight reel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IMoChYVqs8. Admittedly, I question the sanity of anyone who would actually take the time to put together a Carl Landry highlight reel. The Warriors also made the crafty insurance-decision of bringing in Jarrett Jack to back up Curry, which may potentially be their wisest offseason move should Curry re-injure himself. Jack is coming off of his best scoring (15.6 ppg) and assist (6.3 apg) performance of his 8-year career, so there was no better time to recruit him.
     Golden State's second big X-factor after Curry's/Bogut's health will be the production of second-year shooting stud Klay Thompson and lottery-pick Harrison Barnes. Should either of these players slump as starters, the Warriors have a reliable backup in Brandon Rush who shot .452 from 3 last year--good for the 6th highest percentage in the league. I don't imagine Richard Jefferson getting played over Barnes very often... At the end of the day, if Curry and Bogut don't stay healthy this season is a wash. Believe that.

Sacramento Kings (finishes 33-49)

Finishes for 12th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 4th in the Pacific.

     This team's issue is attitude, not talent. Enter Aaron Brooks. Brooks has always played with maturity and professionalism and this team needs those qualities in spades. I was actually somewhat shocked when the Kings of all teams were the ones to pick him up--Brooks' patience on offense and his 3-point range makes him an asset to almost any team. His playing off of Luis Scola single-handedly kept the Rockets relevant a few years ago after Yao Ming's collapse, so clearly the dude can ball.

     You know who else can ball? Not Tyreke Evans. Or at least not since Evans' rookie year, which was hands-down his best season as he averaged 20-5-5. Since then he's been in decline, but the Kings have also moved him from the position where he was best suited. I am not entirely sure at what point the Kings' coaching staff decided that Evans needed to be moved, but a 6'6 point guard in the NBA should not be easily discarded. If the Kings intend to utilize Evans to his full potential, they'll give him some opportunities at the 1 when Isaiah Thomas and Aaron Brooks are not on the floor. All of Jimmer Fredette's minutes at point guard should be immediately allocated to Evans.

    Speaking of things that should happen, the entire league should be terrified of DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson. If you're not, then you're in for a damn surprise which will come in the form of soul-crushing dunks, shot swats, and the best offensive-rebounding pair in the NBA. Hide yo' kids and hide yo' wife. That's all I have to say about these two.

   My biggest concern for Sacramento is... why doesn't anyone talk about Marcus Thornton? Had he not been on my fantasy team last year, I wouldn't have even known who he was. Thornton actually had such a strong season that I somehow traded him and Paul Millsap for Steve Nash and Brandon Jennings (though why no one vetoed that trade is beyond me). Should Thornton improve his field goal percentage, he could be a long shot for the All-Star team.

     Secretly my hope for the Kings is that they eventually get moved out of Sacramento to Las Vegas. Even if they were bad, who wouldn't want to go see the Las Vegas Kings play? The whole arena could be designed like a casino! Basically, whenever anyone starts speculating on new city possibilities for a franchise to relocate to, you know that team is in for a dismal season.

Phoenix Suns (finishes 37-45)

Finishes for 10th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Pacific. 

"It's much different being The Man than One-of-The-Men."--Chris Webber on Goran Dragic's new responsibilities in Phoenix this season.

     For a team whose hallmark was based around one of the best passing-point guards in NBA history, the Suns' have not strayed too far from this identity. Filling the void left by Steve Nash is Nash's understudy, Goran Dragic... But the man who will eventually take the reins as Phoenix's future point guard is 13th pick Kendall Marshall--widely considered the best passing-point guard in the draft (Marshall averaged 8.0 assists per game in his two seasons at North Carolina and led the NCAA with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.48-to-1). If you missed catching this kid in college, this is worth a look: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fucUOlrD4vM (Also, the song is dope).
     Losing Channing Frye for the season hurts this Suns team. They're underwhelming in the 3-point shooting category and have learned to lean on Frye's ability to stretch the defense. Having said that, Luis Scola is an upgrade from Frye in almost every aspect. Though he doesn't bring Frye's same range, Scola can still make mid-range shots and more importantly, he does all of the blue-collar work that coaches love to see from a big man--he fights for boards, sets solid screens, and generally sacrifices his body and shot opportunities for the good of the team. Markieff Morris will also have opportunities to prove himself with Frye's absence. Though not as accurate, Morris still sports 3-point range and is a markedly superior athlete to Frye. But make no mistake--the Suns' most important interior presence this season will be Marcin Gortat, who proved he could be accountable on both ends of the floor last season.
     Fortunately the most exciting development in Phoenix this season will not be the point guard battle, nor will it be the meshing of Scola/Gortat. It will be the resurgence of Michael Beasley. The 2nd overall pick of the 2008 Draft coasted behind the leadership of Dwyane Wade for a few seasons before getting moved to Minnesota and playing uninspired basketball behind a developing Kevin Love. Now he comes to a team that is practically begging for him to shoot the ball and I expect Beasley to take full advantage of the green-light he's been given this season. Last Friday Beasley dropped 29 points on the Denver Nuggets. Measuring a player's performance in a mere preseason game is somewhat pointless--I'm well aware. However, that night I noticed that Beasley took multiple jump shots that had the kind of friendly rolls you only see from someone with an elite shooting touch (Beasley shot 13-for-21 on the night). It was the most confident shooting performance I had seen him display since his days at Kansas State and he looked almost Carmelo-esque. Everything was dropping for him. Fantasy players take note.
     Wesley Johnson, the 4th pick of the 2010 Draft, will also have an opportunity for redemption on this Phoenix team... but averaging only 7.7 points per game over his first two seasons doesn't exactly set the bar very high. Shannon Brown was a solid contributor last year (he averaged 11.0 ppg over 23 minutes of play), so perhaps a new city combined with competing for floor time with Brown will bring the best out in Johnson... or just cause him to disappear entirely. Any which way you look at it, this team is headed for a bumpy season followed by a lottery-pick.
     By the way... LOL: Jermaine O'Neal and Sebastian Telfair are on this team. Frankly, I'd be shocked if they averaged 28 minutes per game between the two of them.

Los Angeles Clippers (finishes 49-33)

Finishes for 6th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Pacific.

     Instead of writing a segment on this year's Los Angeles Clippers, for the sake of entertainment and brevity I have decided to just include the quick notes I made and planned on discussing up to this point:

     1) The Clippers will have problems defending the ball, not scoring it.

     2) DeAndre Jordan doesn't need to become a better scorer. Is he extremely limited in his scoring ability? Yes. Would he be more useful if he could make shots that were further than 5 feet from the basket? Yes. But this team is chocked with guys who can score the ball. What they desperately need is someone who can be an intimidator at the rim.

     3) I can see Lamar Odom being useful for 15 minutes a game.

     4) Barring substantial offseason improvement, Blake Griffin's free throw shooting (.521 in 2011-12) will be the difference between a few potential wins or losses this season. This guy always goes to the line. For midlevel playoff teams like the Clippers, Memphis, and Denver, a few losses could be the difference between playing the Thunder/Lakers in the first round, or playing each other.


     5) Caron Butler's stank eye.

     6) Imagine how good this team could be with a decent coach!

     7) The Clippers are the most stacked team in the NBA at all of the perimeter positions: 1. Paul/Bledsoe. 2. Billups/Crawford. 3. Caron Butler/Grant Hill/Matt Barnes. Any problems they face this season will most likely emanate from Blake and DeAndre.

Los Angeles Lakers (finishes 55-27)

Finishes for 2nd in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Pacific.

     Not to be a hater, but I'm pretty sick of reading/hearing about Dwight Howard and the Lakers, so I'm going to make this quick. Lets take care of the obvious facts first: The Lakers are going to be good this year. At worst, they'll get bounced out of the Western Conference Finals. I don't want to speculate on how good this team is going to be because there's no point--Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, and Dwight Howard are all as professional and hardworking as hardworking professional athletes come. In particular, Bryant and Nash are two of the most competitive NBA players I've ever seen play and are renowned for playing through injuries. This team is going to have a fantastic regular season. The postseason is a whole different ballgame. The postseason is when I plan on following the Lakers's media coverage again--especially if the Lakers lose the lead in a playoffs series. And you should all follow suit. Because when that happens (and it will), the Lakers will be picked apart by sports media outlets from coast to coast and the notoriously catty habit of finger-pointing will begin. So lets play the "Blame-Game," shall we? Will it be Gasol's fault because of his "soft" style of play that Kobe has complained about for back-to-back postseasons? Will it be Howard's fault because he couldn't make his free-throws? Will it be Nash's fault because he can't stay in front of his own shadow, let alone the likes of Russell Westbrook? Or will it be Kobe's fault because he shot too much and alienated everyone with his hyper competitiveness? Personally, I'm already blaming the Lakers for keeping Ron Artest in the starting line-up: HE SHOT .367 IN THE PLAYOFFS LAST SEASON!!! Aside from defending the ball, Ron Artest brings almost nothing to the table these days. The sooner the Lakers come to this conclusion, the sooner they can start Devin Ebanks, the sooner Ebanks can make costly mistakes, the sooner Kobe can tear his confidence apart, and the sooner we all get to hear about it in the news.
     Also, can we talk about the Lakers' bench? Antawn Jamison was a great pick-up for both ends of the floor and nobody on this roster deserves a championship more than he does (with the exception of Steve Nash). Jodie Meeks was another brilliant find. He's no Kobe, but he'll be backing up the Black Mamba for extended periods and in the Lakers' new Princeton offense, which utilizes a variety of cuts and screens, it will help that Meeks shot 53.3% off pick-and-rolls last season. The rest of their bench? Steve Blake, Jordan Hill, Chris Duhon... if the NBA playoffs were changed into a pick-up basketball tournament with all of the best players picking their teammates and bench, nobody would pick these guys. Steve Blake looks like a former towel boy who got good at shooting threes by practicing after the game when nobody was watching. This is 38-year old Steve Nash's backup. Enjoy the regular season, Laker fans. Lets talk again in April.

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Southwest Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Southwest Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day: 

     The Beard finally gets his paper and, for better or worse, gets to be "The Man" on his own team. Congrats, Harden--good luck using pick-and-roll basketball with schmucks like Omer Asik to get your new team to a .500 record. While you're at it, you can teach Jeremy Lin how to make a left hand lay-up.

New Orleans Hornets (finishes 28-54)

Finishes for 14th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Southwest.

     After first glance, New Orleans is a much better team than expected. Though it was only a preseason game, last Friday night Miami pitted their Big Three against NOLA for about 30 minutes and the game generally had the feel of regular-season intensity. Bosh and Wade were even on court until the end of the game and there was a genuine attempt at a late game come back (and Rashard Lewis looked awful... shocker). Though I believed to be already familiar with his skill set, Anthony Davis still managed to surprise me--he displayed a much more complete offensive game than critics give him credit for. That's not to say he will be averaging 20+ points per game in his rookie season--he doesn't have a reliable jumpshot (though he habitually takes it) and doesn't sport many back-to-the-basket moves. However, if you saw that night's performance against the Heat, you will have noticed that Davis has a habit of always leaking out on the fast break and whenever he received the ball within 10 feet of the rim he displayed enough touch and quickness to convert (Davis shot an efficient 11-for-18 to finish with 24 points). So between scoring in transition and simply receiving the ball in areas comfortably close to the hoop, Davis will have nights where he can provide an offensive punch. However, his output will mostly rely on the play of point guard Greiveis Vasquez, who was superb at finding Davis last night (Vasquez finished with 10 assists). Davis' campaign for Rookie of the Year is not the only storyline to keep tabs on in New Orleans this season--after signing an offer sheet for $58 million over the next four years, Eric Gordon will be expected to produce for a team that arguably has the talent to contend for an 8th-seed playoff spot in the West. Will this actually happen? I'd say the Hornets have about the same chances of making the playoffs that we all have of Anthony Davis ditching his Frida Kahlo-swag: it just ain't gonna happen. Be that as it may, during last year's disappointing injury-ridden season, Gordon still managed to average 20.6 points over the 9 games he played. His clear ability to score the ball combined with his new contract is going create the (slightly justified) expectation for Gordon to play like an All-Star this season. As opposed to maturer teams like Utah or well-coached teams like Adelman's Timberwolves, the Hornets' lack of experience will be what separates them from making the playoffs. Be that as it may, having a shooter like Ryan Anderson (who led the NBA last season in threes-made) and an improving slasher in Al-Farouq Aminu should keep defenses preoccupied enough to allow Gordon plenty of opportunities to thrive offensively.

     Also... keep an eye out for Xavier Henry. The 12th pick of the 2010 Draft is entering that magical 3rd season and provided that he gets a decent amount of playing time backing up Gordon, we'll see if he can get his shit together or not. 

Houston Rockets (finishes 31-51)

Finishes for 13th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 4th in the Southwest.

    If you were to average the number of starts that Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons, Patrick Patterson, and Omer Asik (four out of Houston’s five starters this season) have had, it would be just under 23 games. The outliers are 3rd-year center Omer Asik, who has started in only 2 games, and 2nd-year small forward Chandler Parsons, who started in 57 games for Houston as a rookie. This season, the Rockets planned on returning only two starters from last year. Of those two, only one of them had the experience of starting for a full NBA season. That man was Kevin Martin--the Rockets' most valuable bargaining chip. This weekend he was replaced by James Harden--last season's Sixth Man of the Year and recent Gold-medal Olympian. Martin and Harden are two very different starters. When considering the best shooting guards in the NBA, Kobe and Wade are the first to come to mind. But who is the 3rd best shooting guard in the NBA? Maybe Joe Johnson? See, no one immediately stands out. After averaging 16.8 points per game and 3.7 assists per game in only 31 minutes of play, the league's 3rd best shooting guard might very well be James Harden. The Rockets have been in hot pursuit of an All-Star and Harden most definitely has that upside... but is he a franchise player? Without having to play in the shadows of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, we can finally start to get an idea of what Harden's ceiling is and if he is a player you can build a team around. But the biggest winner in this trade is not James Harden, Oklahoma City, or the city of Houston. It is Jeremy Lin. 
     Aside from Houston’s exciting, but ultimately irrelevant rookie class, I found it difficult to pinpoint any noteworthy aspect of the coming season that was worth looking forward to. When I asked my buddy Ben about this team, he pretty much summed up their season in one sentence: “I mean… How much can you really say about the Rockets if you’re not talking about Jeremy Lin?” Of course there are bound to be other interesting side stories: Terrence Jones will have games where analysts remark on how he “was a steal for the Rockets at the 18th pick of the Draft,” people will remember that Donatas Montiejunas actually exists (he was the Rockets’ 20th pick in 2011), and Royce White’s anxiety problems will result in either a) Houston’s front office slipping Royce mild horse-tranquilizers coming up with creative ways to get him on planes or b) having Royce exclusively play home games. But make no mistake--all of these minor headlines will PALE in comparison to how heavily Jeremy Lin will be scrutinized this season. As the Rockets struggle to be a .500 team (sayonara, playoffs!!!), every turnover Lin commits will seem more like two and Lin’s response to the pressure will decide whether Houston is praised or reamed for their offseason acquisition. And make no mistake—the Rockets’ win-loss column, the Knicks’ win-loss column, and Lin’s statistical output will all be deciding factors in evaluating whether Lin was worth his 3-year, $25 million contract. However, with the addition of Harden, Lin will no longer be expected to be the savior of the Rockets--that job now falls to Harden. Instead, Lin's game will be now measured and weighed based on how well he compliments Harden: a much more reasonable feat than having to revive a franchise. 

Dallas Mavericks (finishes 46-36)

Finishes for 7th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Southwest.

     Whereas recent NBA Champions, like Los Angeles, Boston or San Antonio, are always in the discussion to be title contenders, this is not the case with the Dallas Mavericks—they are not going to win the NBA Championship this year. And they probably know that. Darren Collison is no Deron Williams and Chris Kaman is no Dwight Howard. Either one of those players, Howard or Williams, would’ve automatically turned this Dallas team into a title-contender, but this year Dallas will have to settle for just being competitive. And for a Western Conference that is stronger than it was two years ago (when Dallas won) and a Dallas team that is weaker than it was two years ago, just staying competitive will suffice. As heroes in Dallas, there is very little pressure on Dirk Nowitski and Shawn Marion—everyone already knows what to expect from these two. Chris Kaman is as professional and consistent as big men come these days, not to mention the most offensively talented frontcourt-mate Nowitski has ever been paired with, so no problem there. Elton Brand no longer has the same expectations he faced in Philadelphia and will most likely embrace his new role of coming off the bench to hold the defensive fort while Nowitski (now 34-years old) rests. The knuckleheads I’d be concerned with this season are Collison and O.J. Mayo. We have yet to see an encore of Collison’s flash of greatness when he was filling in for an injured Chris Paul in New Orleans three seasons ago (which is why Indiana told Collison to peace this summer). This is Collison's best opportunity to prove his capability as a starting point guard. Back in Indiana, Danny Granger was able to create his own shot opportunities and the David West/Roy Hibbert project failed to blossom until the playoffs when Collison's starting job was already well in the hands of George Hill. Regardless, Collison had few weapons to target. Now he has several--everyone in the starting line-up is capable of scoring 15-20 points in a game, but aside from Nowitski most of these players will need to get the ball in their sweet spots to be successful and it will be Collison's job to get it there. And Mayo? Pfft. 
     Mayo has been in statistical free fall across the board since his rookie season. For 3 years, his duties have essentially been to come off the bench and score for Memphis. His lack of impact is highlighted by the fact that he often subbed in for Tony Allen, who according the most recent NBA GM survey, is perhaps the best perimeter defender in the league (http://www.nba.com/news/features/2012-gm-survey/index.html). Dallas intends to use Mayo as a starter and has expectations for Mayo to do more than just shoot, but after becoming just a slightly-above-average 6th man, this is probably the worst timing for Mayo to receive more responsibility. As the starting 2 guard, Mayo will have to play better defense and improve at getting his teammates involved in the offensive flow. After deferring to the rest of his teammates in Memphis for leadership and the intangibles, this is Mayo's first real opportunity to demonstrate that he's more than a one-dimensional player.

Memphis Grizzlies (finishes 51-31)

Finishes for 5th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Southwest.

   
     If it weren't for the simple fact that San Antonio is coached by the incomparable Gregg Popovich, I would rank Memphis ahead of San Antonio in wins. They certainly have younger and superior personnel. Yet, having Coach Pop in your corner is the perfect example of how superior coaching can directly affect the win-loss column. Be that as it may, one of the most common mantras in basketball is "ya can't teach size." And for the Memphis Grizzlies, that could not be more relevant. Up until the trade this summer that sent Dwight Howard to the Lakers, Memphis probably had the largest front court tandem in the league--if it weren't for Zach Randolph's injury preventing him from competing in last year's playoffs, the Grizzlies' 7-game series with the Clippers most likely would've swayed in Memphis' favor. Just two summers ago we witnessed the Z-Bo/Marc Gasol combo absolutely confound Tim Duncan and his front court partners on both ends of the floor... and this season will feature a healthier and leaner Z-Bo. 
     Most importantly, this team will need Rudy Gay to be more aggressive--he certainly has the chops to be more dominant. Gay was the USA's 2nd leading scorer behind Kevin Durant in the FIBA World Tournament two years ago. Last season Gay averaged 19.0 points per game while taking just over 16 shots per game, so he shoots at an average efficiency already. He just needs to shoot... MORE. In each of the past 5 seasons, Gay has notched at least 18.9 ppg while never attempting more than 16.7 shots per game in any single season--those kind of numbers are proof Gay has the tools to be a big-time scorer for Memphis and can do it without a Kobe-like usage percentage. He just needs to want to embrace that role. And since OJ Mayo will be taking his 12.6 ppg with him to inter-division rival Dallas, it'll be up to Gay to help defray that paltry loss.

San Antonio Spurs (finishes 54-28)

Finishes for 3rd in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Southwest.

     If "ya can't teach size" is the would-be tagline for the Memphis Grizzlies, then the appropriate motto for the Spurs would be "the older the violin, the sweeter the music." If there's anything I've learned from having watched the three-headed dragon of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker play together for over a decade, it is that you should never underestimate the San Antonio Spurs. The Celtics of the West usually fly below the radar all season, but come every April this team manages to stay relevant and in the mix for a championship. As Tim Duncan has gotten older and more limited in his ability to dominate, Coach Popovich has transformed this squad from playing an inside-out style to a team that now utilizes Ginobili's craftiness and Parker's vast bag of tricks to run a pick-and-roll offense that almost always hits the open man with the ball and generally gets everybody touches. In last year's Western Conference Finals, the Spurs ran upwards of 60 pick-and-rolls per game against Oklahoma City. Had it not been for the Thunder's nimble-footed defensive trio of Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins (that's right, I just called Perk nimble-footed), and Thabo Sefolosha, this scheme would've given OKC the same fits it put the Los Angeles Clippers through. Ibaka and company's superb ability to hedge on screens and get back to their defensive assignments in the nick of time are skills that few big men in the league possess--these are the defensive chops that make players like Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Kevin Garnett so valuable. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan were eaten alive by a tempered Spurs offense that will only improve this season as 2nd-year forward Kahwi Leonard is increasingly incorporated into the offense. Is Tim Duncan is a year older? Yes. Will he be 40 years old by the end of his recently signed 3-year contract? Yes. Does Tim Duncan always get into the postseason? Yes. I see no reason why this season will be any different. Believe that.