NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Southwest Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Southwest Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day: 

     The Beard finally gets his paper and, for better or worse, gets to be "The Man" on his own team. Congrats, Harden--good luck using pick-and-roll basketball with schmucks like Omer Asik to get your new team to a .500 record. While you're at it, you can teach Jeremy Lin how to make a left hand lay-up.

New Orleans Hornets (finishes 28-54)

Finishes for 14th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Southwest.

     After first glance, New Orleans is a much better team than expected. Though it was only a preseason game, last Friday night Miami pitted their Big Three against NOLA for about 30 minutes and the game generally had the feel of regular-season intensity. Bosh and Wade were even on court until the end of the game and there was a genuine attempt at a late game come back (and Rashard Lewis looked awful... shocker). Though I believed to be already familiar with his skill set, Anthony Davis still managed to surprise me--he displayed a much more complete offensive game than critics give him credit for. That's not to say he will be averaging 20+ points per game in his rookie season--he doesn't have a reliable jumpshot (though he habitually takes it) and doesn't sport many back-to-the-basket moves. However, if you saw that night's performance against the Heat, you will have noticed that Davis has a habit of always leaking out on the fast break and whenever he received the ball within 10 feet of the rim he displayed enough touch and quickness to convert (Davis shot an efficient 11-for-18 to finish with 24 points). So between scoring in transition and simply receiving the ball in areas comfortably close to the hoop, Davis will have nights where he can provide an offensive punch. However, his output will mostly rely on the play of point guard Greiveis Vasquez, who was superb at finding Davis last night (Vasquez finished with 10 assists). Davis' campaign for Rookie of the Year is not the only storyline to keep tabs on in New Orleans this season--after signing an offer sheet for $58 million over the next four years, Eric Gordon will be expected to produce for a team that arguably has the talent to contend for an 8th-seed playoff spot in the West. Will this actually happen? I'd say the Hornets have about the same chances of making the playoffs that we all have of Anthony Davis ditching his Frida Kahlo-swag: it just ain't gonna happen. Be that as it may, during last year's disappointing injury-ridden season, Gordon still managed to average 20.6 points over the 9 games he played. His clear ability to score the ball combined with his new contract is going create the (slightly justified) expectation for Gordon to play like an All-Star this season. As opposed to maturer teams like Utah or well-coached teams like Adelman's Timberwolves, the Hornets' lack of experience will be what separates them from making the playoffs. Be that as it may, having a shooter like Ryan Anderson (who led the NBA last season in threes-made) and an improving slasher in Al-Farouq Aminu should keep defenses preoccupied enough to allow Gordon plenty of opportunities to thrive offensively.

     Also... keep an eye out for Xavier Henry. The 12th pick of the 2010 Draft is entering that magical 3rd season and provided that he gets a decent amount of playing time backing up Gordon, we'll see if he can get his shit together or not. 

Houston Rockets (finishes 31-51)

Finishes for 13th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 4th in the Southwest.

    If you were to average the number of starts that Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons, Patrick Patterson, and Omer Asik (four out of Houston’s five starters this season) have had, it would be just under 23 games. The outliers are 3rd-year center Omer Asik, who has started in only 2 games, and 2nd-year small forward Chandler Parsons, who started in 57 games for Houston as a rookie. This season, the Rockets planned on returning only two starters from last year. Of those two, only one of them had the experience of starting for a full NBA season. That man was Kevin Martin--the Rockets' most valuable bargaining chip. This weekend he was replaced by James Harden--last season's Sixth Man of the Year and recent Gold-medal Olympian. Martin and Harden are two very different starters. When considering the best shooting guards in the NBA, Kobe and Wade are the first to come to mind. But who is the 3rd best shooting guard in the NBA? Maybe Joe Johnson? See, no one immediately stands out. After averaging 16.8 points per game and 3.7 assists per game in only 31 minutes of play, the league's 3rd best shooting guard might very well be James Harden. The Rockets have been in hot pursuit of an All-Star and Harden most definitely has that upside... but is he a franchise player? Without having to play in the shadows of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, we can finally start to get an idea of what Harden's ceiling is and if he is a player you can build a team around. But the biggest winner in this trade is not James Harden, Oklahoma City, or the city of Houston. It is Jeremy Lin. 
     Aside from Houston’s exciting, but ultimately irrelevant rookie class, I found it difficult to pinpoint any noteworthy aspect of the coming season that was worth looking forward to. When I asked my buddy Ben about this team, he pretty much summed up their season in one sentence: “I mean… How much can you really say about the Rockets if you’re not talking about Jeremy Lin?” Of course there are bound to be other interesting side stories: Terrence Jones will have games where analysts remark on how he “was a steal for the Rockets at the 18th pick of the Draft,” people will remember that Donatas Montiejunas actually exists (he was the Rockets’ 20th pick in 2011), and Royce White’s anxiety problems will result in either a) Houston’s front office slipping Royce mild horse-tranquilizers coming up with creative ways to get him on planes or b) having Royce exclusively play home games. But make no mistake--all of these minor headlines will PALE in comparison to how heavily Jeremy Lin will be scrutinized this season. As the Rockets struggle to be a .500 team (sayonara, playoffs!!!), every turnover Lin commits will seem more like two and Lin’s response to the pressure will decide whether Houston is praised or reamed for their offseason acquisition. And make no mistake—the Rockets’ win-loss column, the Knicks’ win-loss column, and Lin’s statistical output will all be deciding factors in evaluating whether Lin was worth his 3-year, $25 million contract. However, with the addition of Harden, Lin will no longer be expected to be the savior of the Rockets--that job now falls to Harden. Instead, Lin's game will be now measured and weighed based on how well he compliments Harden: a much more reasonable feat than having to revive a franchise. 

Dallas Mavericks (finishes 46-36)

Finishes for 7th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Southwest.

     Whereas recent NBA Champions, like Los Angeles, Boston or San Antonio, are always in the discussion to be title contenders, this is not the case with the Dallas Mavericks—they are not going to win the NBA Championship this year. And they probably know that. Darren Collison is no Deron Williams and Chris Kaman is no Dwight Howard. Either one of those players, Howard or Williams, would’ve automatically turned this Dallas team into a title-contender, but this year Dallas will have to settle for just being competitive. And for a Western Conference that is stronger than it was two years ago (when Dallas won) and a Dallas team that is weaker than it was two years ago, just staying competitive will suffice. As heroes in Dallas, there is very little pressure on Dirk Nowitski and Shawn Marion—everyone already knows what to expect from these two. Chris Kaman is as professional and consistent as big men come these days, not to mention the most offensively talented frontcourt-mate Nowitski has ever been paired with, so no problem there. Elton Brand no longer has the same expectations he faced in Philadelphia and will most likely embrace his new role of coming off the bench to hold the defensive fort while Nowitski (now 34-years old) rests. The knuckleheads I’d be concerned with this season are Collison and O.J. Mayo. We have yet to see an encore of Collison’s flash of greatness when he was filling in for an injured Chris Paul in New Orleans three seasons ago (which is why Indiana told Collison to peace this summer). This is Collison's best opportunity to prove his capability as a starting point guard. Back in Indiana, Danny Granger was able to create his own shot opportunities and the David West/Roy Hibbert project failed to blossom until the playoffs when Collison's starting job was already well in the hands of George Hill. Regardless, Collison had few weapons to target. Now he has several--everyone in the starting line-up is capable of scoring 15-20 points in a game, but aside from Nowitski most of these players will need to get the ball in their sweet spots to be successful and it will be Collison's job to get it there. And Mayo? Pfft. 
     Mayo has been in statistical free fall across the board since his rookie season. For 3 years, his duties have essentially been to come off the bench and score for Memphis. His lack of impact is highlighted by the fact that he often subbed in for Tony Allen, who according the most recent NBA GM survey, is perhaps the best perimeter defender in the league (http://www.nba.com/news/features/2012-gm-survey/index.html). Dallas intends to use Mayo as a starter and has expectations for Mayo to do more than just shoot, but after becoming just a slightly-above-average 6th man, this is probably the worst timing for Mayo to receive more responsibility. As the starting 2 guard, Mayo will have to play better defense and improve at getting his teammates involved in the offensive flow. After deferring to the rest of his teammates in Memphis for leadership and the intangibles, this is Mayo's first real opportunity to demonstrate that he's more than a one-dimensional player.

Memphis Grizzlies (finishes 51-31)

Finishes for 5th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Southwest.

   
     If it weren't for the simple fact that San Antonio is coached by the incomparable Gregg Popovich, I would rank Memphis ahead of San Antonio in wins. They certainly have younger and superior personnel. Yet, having Coach Pop in your corner is the perfect example of how superior coaching can directly affect the win-loss column. Be that as it may, one of the most common mantras in basketball is "ya can't teach size." And for the Memphis Grizzlies, that could not be more relevant. Up until the trade this summer that sent Dwight Howard to the Lakers, Memphis probably had the largest front court tandem in the league--if it weren't for Zach Randolph's injury preventing him from competing in last year's playoffs, the Grizzlies' 7-game series with the Clippers most likely would've swayed in Memphis' favor. Just two summers ago we witnessed the Z-Bo/Marc Gasol combo absolutely confound Tim Duncan and his front court partners on both ends of the floor... and this season will feature a healthier and leaner Z-Bo. 
     Most importantly, this team will need Rudy Gay to be more aggressive--he certainly has the chops to be more dominant. Gay was the USA's 2nd leading scorer behind Kevin Durant in the FIBA World Tournament two years ago. Last season Gay averaged 19.0 points per game while taking just over 16 shots per game, so he shoots at an average efficiency already. He just needs to shoot... MORE. In each of the past 5 seasons, Gay has notched at least 18.9 ppg while never attempting more than 16.7 shots per game in any single season--those kind of numbers are proof Gay has the tools to be a big-time scorer for Memphis and can do it without a Kobe-like usage percentage. He just needs to want to embrace that role. And since OJ Mayo will be taking his 12.6 ppg with him to inter-division rival Dallas, it'll be up to Gay to help defray that paltry loss.

San Antonio Spurs (finishes 54-28)

Finishes for 3rd in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Southwest.

     If "ya can't teach size" is the would-be tagline for the Memphis Grizzlies, then the appropriate motto for the Spurs would be "the older the violin, the sweeter the music." If there's anything I've learned from having watched the three-headed dragon of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker play together for over a decade, it is that you should never underestimate the San Antonio Spurs. The Celtics of the West usually fly below the radar all season, but come every April this team manages to stay relevant and in the mix for a championship. As Tim Duncan has gotten older and more limited in his ability to dominate, Coach Popovich has transformed this squad from playing an inside-out style to a team that now utilizes Ginobili's craftiness and Parker's vast bag of tricks to run a pick-and-roll offense that almost always hits the open man with the ball and generally gets everybody touches. In last year's Western Conference Finals, the Spurs ran upwards of 60 pick-and-rolls per game against Oklahoma City. Had it not been for the Thunder's nimble-footed defensive trio of Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins (that's right, I just called Perk nimble-footed), and Thabo Sefolosha, this scheme would've given OKC the same fits it put the Los Angeles Clippers through. Ibaka and company's superb ability to hedge on screens and get back to their defensive assignments in the nick of time are skills that few big men in the league possess--these are the defensive chops that make players like Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Kevin Garnett so valuable. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan were eaten alive by a tempered Spurs offense that will only improve this season as 2nd-year forward Kahwi Leonard is increasingly incorporated into the offense. Is Tim Duncan is a year older? Yes. Will he be 40 years old by the end of his recently signed 3-year contract? Yes. Does Tim Duncan always get into the postseason? Yes. I see no reason why this season will be any different. Believe that.