NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Northwest Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Northwest Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day:  The unbelievable awkwardness of tonight's Championship Ring Ceremony. When Miami was presented with their rings and Boston was in the locker room... what did Ray Allen do? Did he stand 20 feet off from Miami? Did he pretend to talk to the coaching staff? I didn't notice, but I couldn't imagine that not being weird. Also, prediction: I expect Boston to be effing pissed after having to witness Miami be crowned in front of them and this will cause them to play with added motivation tonight. Boston will keep the game close tonight... barring LeBron going Game 6-mode on them again.

     Welcome to the Northwest Division. Home to the NBA's best power forwards, best scoring team, best shot blocker, and best individual scorer. Let's get to it.

Portland Trailblazers (finishes 35-47)

Finishes for 11th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Northwest.

     This team will not be terrible this season. They will compete, they will have electrifying moments, and Damian Lillard will quickly become a fan-favorite in Rip City. But the difference between them making the playoffs and being a lottery-team again is Brandon Roy. This is just to say that Portland's roster is just one scoring threat away from being a playoff-contender. LeMarcus Aldridge is the 2nd best, young power forward in the game right now behind Kevin Love (yes, I am taking Aldridge over Blake Griffin--Aldridge brings a more complete package and is not as prone to injury). Aldridge still needs some help on both ends of the floor--he needs teammates that can create their own shots (á la Roy) and guys who can help him on the boards--this is a huge reason why the Blazers were in the hunt to land Andrew Bynum. Now their hopes rest on the development of the 7'1 Meyers Leonard--Portland's rookie center who was drafted for his upside to become a great defensive force. But until Leonard blossoms, the Blazers will pair Aldridge with J.J. Hickson. Hickson, after a disappointing season in Cleveland, was moved for his last 19 games to Portland where he averaged 15.1 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game. If Hickson can continue this trend it will take enough pressure off of Aldridge for him to have another All-Star season.
     The most interesting facet of this year's Blazers team has to be Damian Lillard. He has received comparisons to Russell Westbrook, but I don't see it--he's not as explosive and is a much better shooter coming into the league than Westbrook was, although I will say that they have approximately the same swag. If you don't already think Lillard will be making ridiculous fashion statements in post game press conferences, you've got another thing coming. Outside of his style of play, what will make Lillard fun to follow is how far he makes a push for Rookie of the Year. Though most NBA columnists and experts agree that Anthony Davis is a lock for ROY, Lillard is maybe the only other rookie that anyone thinks can present a challenge to Davis: http://www.nba.com/news/nba-com-2012-13-season-predictions/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt3c.
     Even with the excitement of Aldridge playing well and watching Damian Lillard compete for ROY, this Portland team will not be making strides until Nicolas Batum elevates his game to the next level and starts earning the $10.45 million he will be making this year. Also, as solid as he's been for the Blazers, Wesley Matthews has stopped improving. His development was so mercurial over the past few seasons that I believed he would eventually become a 20-point scorer, but his growth stunted last year. Then again... Matthews had to share floor time with Jamal Crawford this past season. Even though Matthews' minutes did not go down, he often had to switch over to point guard (in part due to the pudgy Felton) and got to the free throw line less often as Crawford assumed scoring duty. Perhaps now that he's no longer sharing minutes with Crawford, Matthews will be productive again. Either way, Sasha Pavolic is Matthews' backup this season and I just don't see how any coach could have him on the floor for more than 10 minutes per game. It would just be blatantly irresponsible to play him any longer than that. 

Utah Jazz (finishes 38-44)

Finishes for 8th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Northwest.

    
     Ugh, Utah... talk about a team in desperate need of an identity. This has got to be my least favorite type of team, hands down. Teams that hover around mediocrity for years instead of just retooling easily become the most boring ones amongst fans. And the problem is simple: this team has just TOO many good big men and not enough minutes to go around. On NBA.com's preview coverage of the Jazz, Sekou Smith discusses Derrick Favors' development over the summer with regards to earning playing time: "But how do you justify playing him [Favors] over Millsap, who since taking over as the starting power forward when Carlos Boozer left as a free agent in 2010, has been the model of power forward consistency by averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds?" I'll tell you, Sekou. You deal Millsap! Sure, Millsap is consistent, but he won't win you games. Favors was the crucial piece in the Deron Williams trade because he had so much upside, but you're shortchanging yourself if you limit that potential to under 30 minutes a game. Millsap is not going to improve--he's been basically the same over the past two seasons and you know what to expect for him. There are plenty of teams in the NBA who could use a 17-and-8 post player. Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Orlando--thats three right there! I could completely understand keeping all four big men (Favors, Millsap, Al Jefferson, and Enes Kanter) if Utah was one of the better teams in the West. Under those circumstances, it would be easy getting starting-quality big men to buy into the team-first concept and come off of the bench. But those aren't the circumstances. Utah is a fringe-playoff team. And in a league dominated by perimeter players, Utah is way behind. They absolutely upgraded by bringing in Mo Williams and Randy Foye, but despite whatever Mo Williams thinks of himself, both he and Foye are better coming off of the bench. Take a gamble: deal two of your big men (Millsap and Kanter--Al Jefferson is good for 20-and-10 almost every night) for an upgrade at the perimeter (read: AARON AFFLALO) and be done with it. Or you can just start guys like Gordon Hayward (who shot .182 from the field in the playoffs) and bury your 6'6 point guard lottery-pick, Alec Burks (remember him?) on the bench. 

Minnesota Timberwolves (finishes 41-41)

Finishes for 8th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Northwest.

     Does anybody feel worse for a team than they do for the Timberwolves? Injuries not only derailed their phenomenal run at the postseason last year, but they might also prevent Minnesota from joining the fray in late April this year as well. Until Love gets back in a few weeks the Wolves still have enough talent to put a bandaid on their loss-column, but their hopes at staying .500 depend on the performances of 3 unpredictable players. The first and most important of those players is Brandon Roy. I've seen a few of his games in the preseason and I have to admit... he's looking like ol' Roy again, but the question mark will be his conditioning. I think Roy, along with Nikola Pekovic, can take on the brunt of the scoring load until Love returns, but Rick Adelman will have to keep an eye on Roy's minutes. The second player the Wolves need to help keep them in the mix is Andrei Kirilenko--if he can give them even 80% of what he was producing in the Summer Olympics, the Wolves will be much better on both ends of the floor. AK-47 put up 17.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game this summer... and he usually guarded the opposing team's best player. The third guy the Wolves need to step up until Love's return is Pekovic. The Neanderthal-looking 2nd year big man put up 13.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game last season while shooting .564 from the floor (all over 27 minutes of play). Now entering his 3rd year, Pekovic and Love will form a massive front court that could legitimately lead all PF-C combinations in the NBA in rebounding. 
     Once the NBA's best power forward is locked and loaded, the Wolves will once again be in position to make a run at the playoffs, but it won't be until Rubio is healthy again that they'll pose a legitimate threat. That is no knock to Luke Ridnour--he can run this team decently enough, sure. But when Rubio was on the floor last year, this Wolves team could compete with almost anyone. I can only imagine how playing Rubio with B-Roy would make for an even more lethal combination. I love Rubio's game--he's Steve Nash minus the shooting. Yet, makes up for it by being a great defender--Rubio finished 2nd in steals per game last year at 2.22... only Chris Paul had a better percentage. 
     The most undersold aspect of this team has got to be their bench--I'd even argue that sport one of the top-5 benches in the league. They're featuring two guys who have played for NBA Champions and title-contenders before and know exactly who they are and what their game is. Of course, I can only be referring to JJ Barea (vaya Boricua!) and Greg Stiemsma. Barea and "Stiemsmanity" are both hustle players that simply outwork everybody else to get results--Tom Thibodeau would LOVE having these guys on his Bench Mob. The rest of their bench? Chase Budinger (buckets), Alexey Shved (great passer), and Derrick Williams. Make no mistake--after being massively out-swagged by rookie rival Kyrie Irving last year, Williams (the 2nd pick of the 2012 Draft--shocking, I know) will be out to prove his worth... unless playing a year with Michael Beasley and Darko Milicic permanently changed Williams' standards for how a 2nd pick in the Draft should measure himself. 

Denver Nuggets (finishes 52-30)

Finishes for 4th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Northwest.

     Here they are--officially the most dangerous team to play in the postseason. Most teams will struggle to play at the Nuggets' pace and I believe most of their losses this season will come from Denver's deficiencies as opposed to being outperformed.
     I see two staggering flaws in this season's Nuggets: 1) If you saw Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried play in any of the preseason action, you will have noticed that he looked lost on offense at times. Playing with hustle and high-energy will only get The Manimal so far. For this team to run with the best in the West, he's going to have to improve his awareness on offense... especially the simple things like passing and catching. 2) Who can they count on for threes besides Danilo Gallinari? Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, and Corey Brewer will occasionally hit them, but Denver hasn't really found a way to fill the 3-point shooting hole left by Aaron Afflalo's departure. To be honest, I don't really have much more to say about this team except that between their rate of play and JaVale McGee's antics, the Nuggets will be the most entertaining team to watch this season. Believe that.

Oklahoma City Thunder (finishes 64-18)

Finishes for 1st in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Northwest.

*Finishes for Most Wins in the NBA.

**2012-2013 NBA Champs.

    
     Even if the Thunder finish with the best record in the league, Durant will most likely not receive the MVP award. LeBron just does too much for his team in every statistical category for him not to get it. Many critics believe Durant needed to improve his defense to take his next step as a player and make himself a more viable MVP candidate. Even if this happens (and judging by Durant's trajectory, it will), LeBron will still put up numbers close to a triple-double that Durant never will--not because he can't, but because he doesn't need to and it is not his role. Durant's seemingly unlimited range discourages his passing and I almost wonder if LeBron was as good a shooter as Durant (he's close, but no cigar), would he be less inclined to pass? Either way, the King is the preseason MVP-fave and for good reason--no one in NBA history has ever combined the athleticism, superb passing, and ability to play and defend every position the way LeBron has. Bill Simmons has referred to LeBron multiple times as Larry Bird 2.0 and as much as I love that comparison, I'm not even sure it goes far enough. Yet, Durant's ceiling is just as high. I noted this on Facebook last year when watching the Playoffs--Durant has the physical dimensions of Hakeem Olajuwon and the offensive skill set of Kobe Bryant. Judging by his lithe body type, Durant will likely never put on the kind of muscle that has made James a tank, but he doesn't need to. His jumpshot, the length of his arms, and his athleticism alone allow him to bypass and go over defenders. What he needs now are new wrinkles in his game. You can see that after losing to the Mavericks two summers ago, he learned from the defeat and added some aspects of Dirk Nowitski's game to his repertoire--most notably that one-footed jumper that Dirk loves: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQXlfMhwUoo. But for him to take the Thunder to new heights, Durant will need to do what both Kobe Bryant and LeBron James has done--he will need to improve his post-play. I'm not suggesting that he takes Olajuwon's summer classes as Kobe and LeBron have done before him, but it sure wouldn't hurt either. Oklahoma City can only go as far as Durant can take them and having an inside-outside game would be ideal for the 6'9 forward. 
     Sad though it was, I don't believe losing James Harden will prove to be a season-changing decision. Kevin Martin is a proven shooting guard and Jeremy Lamb's contributions could be quite valuable, even as a rookie. I can't wait to see how Lamb develops as he enters his 1st season alongside such a young core with a team-first attitude. I don't imagine him failing to improve running with Durant and Russell Westbrook for a full season.
     Outside of Durant's leadership this season, the second most important variable will be Westbrook's shot-selection. Westbrook was notorious for shooting his team in and out of games, so he will need to improve picking his spots and when he should take over offensively if he wants the Thunder to make it past the more patient title-contenders. The last important variable will be the play of Serge Ibaka. Ibaka has gotten better every season and still has so much room for improvement. If he can continue the overall ascension in his game, it will make OKC a juggernaut on both ends of the floor. This season I expect Ibaka to get the nod for Defensive Player of the Year... especially after he and Kendrick Perkins give Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol fits in the Western Conference Finals.