By Rico Bautista
Derp of the Day: Being Ronny Turiaf. Oh, BELIEVE that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oNdH60x_Tc
In most recent years, the Southwest region has retained the title of the most competitive division in the NBA. This Southwest was so good, in fact, that in 2010 the Houston Rockets finished with a record of 42-40, but still did not qualify to make the playoffs in the West (in the Eastern Conference they would've been the 8th seed). But with all of the player movement that occurred over this past summer, there is a new "stacked" division on the block. I have put off covering this division for weeks because 4 out of 5 of these teams are close enough (talent-wise) that it was difficult to determine where they would finish. So finally here we are. The Beast in the East. The Pest to the West. The Atlanic Division.
Toronto Raptors (finishes 31-51)
Finishes for 12th in Eastern Conference.
Finishes for 5th in the Atlantic.
Do not be mistaken: when I was talking about "The Beast in the East," I was not referring to the Toronto Craptors *ahem*... Raptors (ok, that was a cheap one). Besides being a large European power forward who can hit threes, it is beyond me why anyone has ever considered Andrea Bargnani the next coming of Dirk Nowitski (and Dirk, these comparisons should offend you as well). Bargnani is literally inferior to Nowitski in every statistical facet of the game and now, going into his 7th season, I sincerely doubt he's suddenly going to "get it." The other piece of their front court? Jonas Valanciunas. Several GMs have claimed Valanciunas could've gone as high as the 2nd pick in the 2012 Draft Class, but considering the depth in talent of this class, I believe Valanciunas is being somewhat over touted. His performance in the 2012 Summer Olympics alone was far below what anyone expected. His meager production is additionally compounded when considering his ample share of minutes-played: "His [Valanciunas'] performance at the Olympics was another sign that he might not be ready to make a major splash in the NBA. He averaged just 6.3 points and 6.0 rebounds, committing 6.6 Fouls (lol) per 36 minutes (so on average, he was basically ALWAYS ON THE FLOOR with the exception of only FOUR MINUTES PER GAME) and failing to make much of an impact on either end of the floor," (Thanks, NBA.com). Valanciunas as the 2nd pick? Thomas Robinson went 5th in the 2012 Draft. He went 5th because of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCROyYs-Hw4
If anybody can find me a highlight reel that makes Valanciunas look like you'd draft him before THIS guy, I'll... umm, eat my shorts or something. You know what I mean. I'm not sure anyone would argue against Robinson (the 5th pick), Dion Waiters (the 4th), Bradley Beal (the 3rd), and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (the 2nd) having the ability to outshine the subpar standards set by Valanciunas' performance this summer.
Meanwhile the Raptors got "better" with Free Agency this summer. How? By signing Alan Anderson (who IS that, right? That's what I thought when I saw that name, so I looked him up and apparently he's spent the past few years abusing everyone in Tel Aviv: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQWFuOwAEh4), Landry Fields (who, unless he's learned how to play defense and hit open threes following his departure from the Knicks, the Raptors just paid $20 million over the next 3 years to see dunk occasionally [Thanks Colangelo!]), Aaron Gray, and John Lucas (LOL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ4GA3GB3Wk). They also signed Kyle Lowry, which was a good move. But sadly, aside from their underwhelming front court, I suspect Toronto's biggest problem to come from their new backcourt--specifically on who plays the big minutes at the 1. Kyle Lowry had a pretty good season in Houston, which earned him a bigger contract playing in Toronto. The Raptors did not bring him over to be a back up point guard. So he's obviously going to get Jose Calderón's starting spot. How do you think Calderón is going to feel about that after: (a) being a solid starter for 4 years, (b) finishing for 5th in assists per game (8.9) two seasons ago, and (c) leading the NBA in assists-to-turnovers (4.5:1) last season for the 3rd time in 5 years. I completely understand that Duane Casey wants to run an uptempo game utilizing Lowry with DeMar DeRozan and rookie Terrence Ross flanking him on the wings, and they'll be score in bunches/play at a fast pace/be exciting to watch, yeah. BUT, how is that gonna work with the slower-paced Euroballerzz, Bargnani/Valanciunas? Wouldn't a point guard like, sayyyy, the best Spanish point guard in NBA history (Rubio still needs 2-3 more years) who has the Generally-Great-At-Getting-Everybody-Involved game and is accustomed to the Euroballerzz' style of play be the best option? I say give him weapons like Terrence Ross (if you saw him in Summer League, you know he's eager to compete for ROY) and DeRozan (*in a contract season), let him guide the Euroballerzz' awkward style of scoring to its maximum efficiency, and let that team be an imitation of Nash's '06-'07 Suns. Or you can just piss off the best point guard suited for the big minutes and give Landry Fields lots of playing time. Let's see how that goes.
Brooklyn Nets (finishes 46-36)
Finishes for 6th in Eastern Conference.
Finishes for 4th in the Atlantic.
I'm going to go ahead and argue that the Brooklyn Nets will be the most exciting team to watch in the Eastern Conference this season. This is mainly for two reasons: 1) their starting line-up is talented enough to beat any of the best teams in the league and 2) their bench is thinner than the hair on the back of Manu Ginobili's head. Because of this, I don't foresee Avery Johnson keeping both Joe Johnson and Deron Williams on the bench for long stretches of time. The amount of rest Williams and Johnson receive largely relies on any improvement the rookie standout MarShon Brooks has made during the offseason, as well as if Brook Lopez can return to his former offensive output of 20 points per game two seasons ago. Make no mistake--there will most certainly be nights where Johnson and Williams will score 50 points between the two of them, but it would foolish to expect this kind of production to sustain the team over a grueling 82-game season. It is for this precise reason that I believe the Nets signed Andray Blatche. Though often inconsistent as a starter in Washington, Blatche demonstrated during his time there that he was often a double-double threat when coming off the bench. Thus far I have only seen him in preseason play for Brooklyn, but Blatche has played quite efficiently when coming off the bench and notched a 23-point performance in 25 minutes of play against the Boston Celtics last week in TD Garden. I suspect that his level of play for Brooklyn this season will be somewhat of a rennaissance to the days where he was more consistently an offensive threat for Washington. Blatche now has a fresh start on a new team and unlike his most recent years in Washington, he is not burdened with the pressure to carry the team's offense. He is also fortunate enough to be playing with the best quality backcourt he has ever been teamed with. This will make his scoring responsibilities even simpler.
Many NBA analysts concurred that last season witnessed the emergence of the small-ball era for basketball (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/39682/sizing-up-small-ball-how-the-celtics-are-responding-to-their-rivals). The Nets' have a definitive advantage over the rest of the league by sporting the NBA's best backcourt in Willams/Johnson (no offense to Team Kash [Kobe-Nash], but its true). Having said that, the timing of the Brooklyn Nets' arrival is somewhat unfortunate--in last season's Derrick Rose-less Eastern Conference playoffs, this Nets' roster might've been talented enough to make a deep run in the postseason. This summer the Heat, Celtics, Knicks (arguably), and 76ers all made significant roster changes that improved each of these teams across the board and has made the top seeds in the Eastern Conference tougher to crack. More importantly, teams like Boston, Philly, Miami, and New York all ranked top-10 in defense last season (literally in that order from 2 to 5. Of course, only Thibodeau's Bulls were better). So the Nets need to ask: what were the key pieces to these teams being top-10 in defense? Well, lets look at Miami first. Compared to the media attention that Wade & LeBron earned, Miami's "Big 3" felt more like a "Big 2 + 1"... but that was until Chris Bosh was healthy enough to start in the Finals and used his much-missed length to turn Miami into a defensive nightmare once again. The Knicks became a top-10 defensive team with the arrival of last year's Defensive Player of the Year, Tyson Chandler. And the Celtics have been top-5 in defense every season since Kevin Garnett's been in Boston. Now... what do Chris Bosh, Tyson Chandler, and Kevin Garnett have in common? They are all post-defenders who are adept at surveying opposing teams' offenses and can perform some combination of playing great help-defense, calling out/switching on picks, altering shots at the rim, and guarding multiple positions. It is most likely for this reason that the Nets signed Reggie Evans--unless Brooklyn's tandem of Brook Lopez/Kris Humphries can become more formidable/versatile defenders, the Nets will have a winning regular season, but not much more than that. I wouldn't be surprised if Avery Johnson decides to play Gerald Wallace at the power forward position for some stretches due to his defensive prowess and his superior quickness to most of the league's power forwards. Nevertheless, at 6'7 Wallace cannot be expected to contest the likes of Amar'e Stoudemire or Kevin Garnett when he really should be defending guys like Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce. Lopez undoubtedly possesses the size and athleticism to become an above-average defender and realistically, considering Humphries' rebounding capability, the Nets can survive Lopez never becoming an elite rebounder. What they cannot survive is him failing to master all of the other defensive intangibles and establishing himself as a shot-altering presence in the paint.
On the upside, Lopez will be practicing with Deron Williams on a daily basis, and the two will often play for opposite practice teams. If you examine all of the NBA teams that have offensively talented point guards, you will notice that many of these teams eventually develop a reliable post defender as well. Taj Gibson was a talented defender at USC, but it wasn't until he played against the likes of master-contortionist Derrick Rose that he became the defensive menace that he is now--the Tajmanian Devil is now capable of defending 4 positions. Kendrick Perkins? If you don't think Rondo's speed and uncanny style of play made Perk a better defender (plus playing with Garnett never hurts), then you probably didn't notice that Andrew Bogut's defense (and overall game) improved drastically following Milwaukee picking up Brandon Jennings. And speaking of Garnett, didn't he play with Stephon Marbury (*in his prime) during his early years in the NBA? What about Tyson Chandler? Didn't he play with Chris Paul for 3 years, as well as win an NBA Championship with Jason Kidd? And I dare you to name another player (besides LeBron) who goes harder to the rim than Russell Westbrook. Yet, I guarantee you that Serge Ibaka has grown accustomed to meeting Westbrook's drives there every time. Is it possible that all of these great post defenders would have been great without playing with great point guards? Well sure. After all, playing with Steve Nash didn't do much for STAT's post defense (and make no mistake--Stoudemire had all of the necessary tools to become a great defender). Though playing with Williams should get Lopez accustomed to becoming more decisive, making faster defensive switches, and increase his general reaction time, it is not guaranteed. The biggest question is going to be if Avery Johnson decides to a) cut his losses and uses ingenuity to cover up for Lopez's defensive shortcomings or b) inspires Lopez to play defense by lighting a fire under his ass (á la the 2004-05 Dirk Nowitski, when Avery Johnson took over and Nowitski was inspired to average 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks per game). The only question is, how far will The Little General lead his troops this time?
Philadelphia 76ers (finishes 48-34)
Finishes for 5th in Eastern Conference.
Finishes for 3rd in the Atlantic.
Noooobody wants a piece of this team. Nobody. This team is filled with players who both know their roles and know how to win games. That alone puts them at the head of the pack in the East. The only two losses from last season that I see hurting them are the loss of Lou Williams' consistency and the loss of Andre Iguodala's leadership on both ends of the floor. This change in personnel now puts the spotlight on Jrue Holiday: "One other big difference in the Sixers' offense will be an increased role for point guard Jrue Holiday. When they left Philly, Iguodala and Williams took 8.9 assists per game with them, so more of the playmaking burden falls on Holiday's shoulders," (NBA.com). And I guess Evan Turner is chopped liver? Jason Richardson may be starting in Iguodala's old position, but he's also 31 and (like most 30+ year olds in the NBA) just doesn't have the same bounce anymore. Richardson brings the long-range game Iggy was lacking in, but losing Iggy means more than just losing his assists. Losing Iggy means losing Iggy's rebounds, Iggy's steals, Iggy's ability to chase around the opposing team's best player all night... there's a reason why everybody is going nuts in Denver right now. So although the Sixers got back more than they gave away this offseason, there remains a tremendous hole left by Iguodala's departure. But before anyone can expect Turner to fill the rest of his stat box, he'll have to improve his 3-point and free throw shooting from last year (.224 3P% and .676 FT% in '11-'12). This is the season when we'll see if Turner actually earns his place as the 2nd pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, or if the 76ers should have gone with DeMarcus Cousins (IMAGINE him and Bynum, holy shit), Paul George, Eric Bledsoe (unbelievably underrated), or even Avery Bradley. But even despite Turner's performance, Philadelphia will be a team to reckon with. Try to notice if anything about the following offensive strategy strikes a bell: "The addition of three guys--Jason Richardson, Dorell Wright and Nick Young--who ranked in the top 26 (since when is "the top 26" a statistic that people follow? 24, 25, sure. But 26? I bet if you looked this up, one of these 3 guys finished at 26, which is why the NBA.com guys decided to use that stat.) in 3-pointers last season will help the Sixers spread the floor and better take advantage of Bynum's presence inside," (NBA.com). Sound familiar? Ok, I'll tell you. The 2008-09 Orlando Magic used this exact same strategy of surrounding Dwight Howard with 3-point shooters to propel themselves into the '08-'09 Finals (...where Kobe handed them a country-style ass whipping). Here are the key differences: 1) Andrew Bynum has wayyyy more moves on the block this season than Howard had in '08-'09, is a significantly better free throw shooter (Bynum shot free throws 20% better than Howard did last season and his percentage even went up in the postseason), and Bynum is bigger. 2) Howard was the only player consistently in the paint for the Magic that season. Remember, Rashard Lewis (their STARTING power forward) was primarily used as another 3-point shooter and failed to average even 6 rebounds per game that season. Spencer Hawes will be helping Bynum in the post for the 76ers this season and at 7'1 will be the largest starting power forward in the league. Hawes also likes to score using his 15-foot jumper, which will allow him to stretch the defense while still staying near the paint. 3) The Magic used a combination of Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, Courtney Lee, JJ Redick (still a season before he started getting decent playing time and raining from downtown), Rafer Alston, and Jameer Nelson to either throw alley-oops to Howard, get it to Howard in the paint, or set up a 3-point shot. Only Nelson and Lee had the quickness and ball handling skills to penetrate the paint, but they were too small to do anything once they got there. Philadelphia does not have these limitations. Young/Richardson/Wright can fill it from distance, but the rest of the team--namely Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, and Jrue Holiday--can score in a variety of ways that the '08-'09 Magic could not. The lynchpin to this entire operation is in Bynum's health, which has been spottier than a dalmatian over the past few seasons. If he can stay healthy, expect a lot of buckets to Fill-adelphia (I'm not apologizing for that one).
New York Knicks (finishes 50-32)
Finishes for 3rd in Eastern Conference.
Finishes for 2nd in the Atlantic.
I can't say I agree... just yet. As a fan, you always tend to hope the most for your hometown team, but often keep those hopes silent for fear of jinxing the team's success. Even now, I am severely tempted to completely skip covering this section, but alas... I am without a choice. The Knicks' roster this season would really benefit from a coach like Gregg Popovich. Not because Woodson isn't good enough and not because Popovich is a Hall of Fame coach, but simply because this is a roster loaded with talent, severely-aged veterans, egos, and talented severely-aged veterans with egos. Pop has been a maestro of manipulation when it comes to getting players to check their egos at the door and buy into his system of playing team defense and unselfish basketball (which is why he will be a shoo-in for the 2016 USA Men's Olympic Basketball Team). I am not broaching this hypothetical in order to complain about Woodson as a coach. After what D'Antoni put us through, I would've taken anybody--even Vinny Del Negro Samuel L. Jackson doing his best Coach Carter impression. I bring Popovich up because I see the many parts of this Knicks' roster and how they could potentially mesh together to be one of the best teams in the NBA. In the same vein, I also see a bunch of guys who could quite possibly have different agendas: Amar'e is coming off a season he was statistically embarrassed by (will this help or hinder New York?), Raymond Felton is playing with a bitter aggression from the Knicks trading him not so long ago (will this help or hinder New York?), and Rasheed Wallace is a f*cking head case (will this help, hinder, or simply entertain New York?). And speaking of head cases, I've always had the sneaking suspicion that J.R. Smith is entirely capable of losing it and assaulting a fan (God only knows what brand of crazy his younger brother, Chris Smith, will bring to the team). When considering all of these volatile factors, I take solace in knowing that Tyson Chandler is on the team and that, with the exception of maybe Kevin Garnett, there is really no better emotional and defensive anchor in the NBA.
Chandler almost singlehandedly gives me faith in the Knicks' defense. You could see it last season--his defense was infectious. Considering that Camby is backing him up and Iman Shumpert is due to return sometime in December, I have no concerns over whether the Knicks will be able to get stops (except for when defensive sieves, like 'Melo, are guarding the ball). My biggest concern, like most fans and critics, revolves around their (lack of) offense. Considering the offensive revitalization that playing pick-and-roll with Jeremy Lin gave Tyson Chandler last season, I am looking forward to him running it with a familiar player in Kidd. Felton also proved adept at running pick-and-roll plays with Amar'e before he was traded, so it will be exciting to see him experiment running those plays with Chandler, and even 'Melo on occasion. Felton will also have increased opportunities to run this offense exclusively with Chandler and 'Melo due to Amar'e's recent knee problem.
In my humble opinion, Amar'e being out 2-3 weeks with an injury I can't pronounce doesn't really affect how the Knicks will begin the season. Why? Because Kurt-freakin'-Thomas is going to be starting in his stead! These days you can count on the 40-year old Thomas to play hard-nosed defense and only take shots he knows he can make (which aren't many these days). I'm actually much more concerned about Amar'e's return due to Woodson's promise in the offseason to "get the ball to Amar'e in the post more." 'Melo and STAT did not make for a harmonious offensive tandem last season and the team usually performed better when one of the two was on the bench. I can only hope that Amar'e's offseason workouts with Hakeem Olajuwon will bear the same results that it did with the likes of Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard.
The Knicks have already set records this season by compiling the oldest roster in NBA history, with an average age of 32 years, 240 days old. Most analysts criticize this fact and predict the Knicks will face the same problems that veteran teams like the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs face--that this is a young man's game and injuries/fatigue are bound to pile up by the postseason. While these arguments are proven and valid, I do not believe they're entirely applicable to the Knicks. Unlike the Celtics and Spurs who start 4 players over the age of 35 (C's: Garnett & Pierce, SA: Ginobili & Duncan), the Knicks will bring all of their veteran talent off of the bench. It will be a rare night that Jason Kidd will be playing 30+ minutes in a game, whereas Garnett will play that amount for the majority of the season.
The average age of this team does make one implication, however. This team is filled with 4 or 5 guys who were once, or are current, alpha dogs. When it comes to crunch time, it is possible that more than one of these players will want the ball in their hands and ideally it will go like this: Chandler sets a high screen for Kidd, while Steve "Novak-aine!" gets open for a three and Kurt Thomas screens for 'Melo who will eventually get the ball and do his 'Melo-thing. Or J.R. Smith/Rasheed Wallace decide to play hero-ball and launch a 30-foot jumper instead that breaks the rim. See, it really could go either way. That's why this season I'm thanking my lucky stars for dependability in the form of Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd, Kurt Thomas, and Steve Novak. If there's to be any kind of glue in the Knicks' locker room this season, you know it'll be coming from these guys. Believe that.
Boston Celtics (finishes 52-30)
Finishes for 2nd in Eastern Conference.
Finishes for 1st in the Atlantic.
Then there's Boston's superb drafting. Avery Bradley was a stud at Texas two years ago, but his production fell off midway through the season and as a result dropped to the 19th pick in 2010. For the 2012 Draft, they picked up Jared Sullinger (21st) and Kris Joseph (51st). It is evident that the Celtics draft players based on their body of work, not necessarily scout projections or potential development. Kris Joseph was the leading scorer, averaging 13.4 ppg, on a stacked Syracuse team the past two seasons. This was a 'Cuse team that featured the likes of Dion Waiters (the 4th pick of the 2012 Draft) and Fab Melo (2010-11 Big East Defensive Player of the Year). I was going to mention that the C's also drafted Fab Melo (22nd), but based on recent rumors that he's likely headed to the D-League, it now seems irrelevant. Now obviously Kris Joseph will not see much floor time while playing 3rd string to Paul Pierce and Jeff Green, but the fact that he managed to fall to the Celtics at all makes me a believer in the luck of the Irish. As Pierce ages and Green becomes more prominent at the small forward minutes, Joseph will be a major asset in keeping Pierce's minutes down. And then there's Jared Sullinger. Considered a top-10 pick two seasons ago, Sullinger put up over 17 ppg and more than 9 rpg during his two-year stint at Ohio State, however back issues deterred teams from drafting him higher... but not Boston--they practically leapt at the chance to draft him. Sullinger's situation is actually quite reminiscent of when DeJuan Blair was overlooked in the draft 3 seasons ago due to knee injuries, but then became an extremely important and dominating piece for the San Antonio Spurs (as well as helped extend Tim Duncan's career). Just from following the C's preseason and training camp, I would not be surprised if Sullinger starts over Brandon Bass at some point this season--his on-court chemistry with Kevin Garnett is already remarkable.
PLUS... what about Boston's "New Big Three?" Whether or not Rajon Rondo and Allen actually had beef, with Allen's departure there is no question as to who the new and most important member of Boston's Big Three is. Rondo's speed, passing ability, and tenacity on defense made him a top-5 point guard in the NBA last season. He's also the biggest triple-double threat in the league outside of LeBron. His one shortcoming has always been his jumper, but from the later half of last season--specifically his 44-point outburst (he shot 16-for-24 from the field) against Miami in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals--it is clear that shooting is another weapon that is steadily becoming apart of Rondo's arsenal. Yet, to the dismay of their competitors, Rondo's improvement will not be the C's biggest offensive surprise this season. Everyone is sleeping on Jeff Green. Green sat through a season of watching his former team go to the Finals without him. He also had to witness his current team lose in a Game 7 against Miami where his added offensive punch might've tipped the scale in Boston's favor. Though Green only averaged 9.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and .7 assists while playing for Boston, this was only after playing for half a season and after having his floor time cut from 37.0 to 23.4 minutes per game. With Allen's departure and a need to minimize Garnett's and Pierce's minutes, Green will see much more floor time this season at both the small and power forward spots--especially if he can prove himself a capable defender. Though he possesses the athleticism to defend the wing, at 6'9 Green is slightly undersized for defending the post, so it will be enticing to see how many points the Celtics' defense gives up when Rivers decides to go small-ball with Green and Sullinger at the 4 and 5.
Doc Rivers' and Kevin Garnett's defense has been the foundations for the Celtics' culture over the past five years. Building around this idea of umbuntu, Boston continues to stick around and keep themselves relevant--be it through wise drafting, savvy free agent signings, or methodical monitoring of the Big Three's minutes. I learned yesterday that the Celtics recently signed "the Brazilian Blur," Leandro Barbosa. For most title-contenders, I would be impressed in their signing of someone with Barbosa's talent this close to the start of the season. But not for Boston. For Boston, this is just old-hat. For Boston, competing is second nature. For Boston, a championship-less season is a failed season.
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