NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Southeast Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Southeast Division

By Rico Bautista

     I'm starting with the Southeast Division in this Preview series because it is arguably the easiest of the divisions to predict. Obviously Miami will finish with the best record in this division and, barring Dan Gilbert hiring an Albanian hitman to break LeBron's legs, the Heat will probably finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference (though my money is on Oklahoma City for best in the league). But that also kind of makes them no fun to talk about. On the other hand, Orlando will probably finish with the worst record in the Eastern Conference and the NBA due to Dwight Howard's departure. But at least their incredible downward spiral kind of makes them fun to talk about.

Miami Heat (finishes 62-20)

**Finishes for 2nd in Wins in the NBA.

Finishes for 1st in the Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Southeast.

    

     Not much to say about this team except that they not only got better with the additions of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but they also still have members on their roster with tremendous upside. Norris Cole surprised everyone last year with his high energy and ability to run the Heat's uptempo style as a rookie. He needs only to improve his shot selection and perimeter defense before seeing more minutes backing up Mario Chalmers...also being able to hit an open 3 every now and then never hurt. However, the one player I have my eye on--and any scouters from other teams should have their whispering eyes on (so they don't get violently shafted)--is Jarvis Varnado. Though only 6'9, Varnado sports an Anthony Davis-like 7'4 wingspan that allowed him to break Shaquille O'Neal's single season SEC block record with 170 blocks. Varnado, along with NBA Legend David Robinson, is the only other college player to finish with 1,000 points, 1,000 rebounds, and 500 blocks... plus, come on, he went to Mississippi State! A university known for the professional success of its undergraduate body (http://www.brobible.com/girls/article/meet-taylor-corley-the-missississippi-state-cheerleader-who-took-her-clothe). Though he has received little to no attention in his pro career, Varnado's natural defensive abilities and lack for needing offensive touches, make him the perfect potential upgrade from a very mediocre defensive center in Joel Anthony. The 6'9 Anthony averaged 1.3 blocks/game last season--the same as Dwayne Wade...who is 6'4...and a perimeter player...and played on a bum knee. Any coach failing to see Varnado as the obvious choice to phase out Joel Anthony would probably be more useful as a videographer than as a head coach...wait, what was Spolestra's first job with Miami again?

Atlanta Hawks (finishes 39-43... thanks to teams like the Toronto Raptors)

Finishes for 9th in the Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Southeast.

     The Atlanta Hawks have not won a title in 54 years...and it looks like they'll have to wait a little bit longer. In fact, after not missing the playoffs for the past half decade, missing them this season will be the first of many signs to GM Danny Ferry that like the rest of the league, you need an alliance of superstars to win these days...and the Al Horford/Josh Smith tandem doesn't cut it. Josh Smith (aka the poor man's LeBron) would be ideal as a team's third best player--he would fit in perfectly at Golden State, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, or New Orleans for example. But unfortunately for the Hawks, Joe Johnson's level of play dipped after signing his max-contract and the Al Horford Project never became the 20 and 10 guy we all thought he was going to be (this past season Horford averaged 12.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game...all of these numbers down from his previous All-Star season of 15.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists). Having Josh Smith and Al Horford as the leaders of your team is like having chrome rims and a fly paint job on a car that leaks gasoline--yes they're unique and valuable talents, but it is impossible to maximize their potential with the ragtag supporting cast they've been given. When it comes down to it, they don't even really compliment each other--Al Horford is a F/C that with his gifted shooting touch and average at-the-rim defense, really should be playing the PF position. Josh Smith is a PF/SF that with his lack of shooting touch and incredible at the rim finishing, really should be playing the PF position. Notice the cloggage? The silver lining this season is that both of these guys are running with the best point guard they've had yet to play with in their pro careers. I'm talking about a fast point guard... a scorer... and a defensive liability. Yes, they'll be playing with none other than Devin Harris. Fans of the 2012-13 Hawks will see plenty of amazing fast break alley-oops from Harris to Smith, as well as Smith's own impressive litany of dunks, blocks, and chest-thumping. They will see the occasional scoring outburst from offensive-aficionado Lou Williams coming off the bench. They will see plenty of 3s from sharpshooters Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow, as well as the always entertaining spectacle of Zaza Pachulia getting into faux-fights and generally pretending to be a tough guy. They will even see former D-Leaguer Ivan "the Terrible" Johnson getting after it defensively...but he will be the only one. Because thats what this team is--Josh Smith, Al Horford, and a bunch of realllllly good bench players. Believe that.

Orlando Magic (finishes 17-65)

**Finishes last in the NBA in Wins.

Finishes for 15th in the Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Southeast.

     Last season's Orlando Magic will be remembered for the infamous "Dwightmare" that their former superstar center caused with his media frenzy in an attempt to be traded. And now that he has followed in the footsteps of his predecessor, the great Shaquille O'Neal, the only speculation surrounding this season's Orlando Magic is the question of who will lead them in scoring...and rebounding...and blocked shots? If the lower back injury he sustained at the end of this past season is any indication, it is clear that Dwight Howard single-handedly carried the Magic for the 8 seasons he played there. Having said that, one would think that in exchange for most dominant center in the league, Orlando got their money's worth, right? Well, Howard went to the Lakers...sooo the Magic must've gotten Pau Gasol, one of the most skilled post players around, right? Ok, maybe they dropped the ball on that one. Well, how about Andrew Bynum, the second best center in the league with even more size than Howard? Oops, shat the bed there too... So who did they get? That's right: Arron Afflalo and Al Harrington! Here's a little NBA secret I'd like to share--similar to Vladmir Radmanovich, the team that gets Al Harrington in a trade is the losing party 99.99999% of the time. As a Knicks fan, I have experienced the pain of watching Al Harrington jack up ill-advised 3 after 3 (while virtually scratching his ass on defense) firsthand. And Afflalo? One of the best perimeter defenders in the league, as well as a trustworthy 3-point marksman... but he just can't get it done alone.
     Sorry, Orlando fans, but this season is a wash for the Magic. I would just keep my fingers crossed that GM Rob Hennigan advises the team to tank in an effort to land Jabari Parker in the 2013 draft class (assuming that Parker decides to forego Mormon mission and that the Charlotte Bobcats don't finish with a poorer record than the Magic). Oh, and if you've never seen Jabari Parker play, this dude can hoop (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwDWBfIWDy0. ). But hey, on the upside for all you NBA fantasy players out there--with Howard gone, Glen "Big Baby" Davis should grab a decent amount of boards...not because he's an elite rebounder, but because I honestly don't know who else in Orlando is going to hit the glass. It sure as hell won't be Al Harrington.

Washington Wizards (finishes 42-40)

Finishes for 8th in the Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Southeast.

     Now here's a fun team. Here's an unpredictable team. A dangerous team. Here's a team that on any given night can beat any other team in the league, or simply beat themselves. This season, the Washington Wizards will sink or swim depending on the performance of one man, and one man alone. Of course, I am talking about John Wall. Okay, so maybe I'm exaggerating and it isn't all on his shoulders... but I will say that if the Wizards struggle this season, the former number 1 pick of the 2010 Draft will be the first person critics aim their columns towards (myself included). This is for two reasons: 1) For some unfair reason, there is this culture in the NBA that gives Lottery picks an unofficial three year window to "figure it out." "Figuring it out" refers to the adjustment period it takes for players to become acclimated the faster pace, grueling schedule, and the more athletic players of the NBA. And for what is now a point guard-dominated league, the learning curve is even shorter. Last year's Rookie of the Year, Kyrie Irving, is already regarded by many NBA analysts and experts as a more mature and efficient point guard than Wall. 2) This season, Wall is surrounded by the best supporting cast he's had to date. Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, and Nene are all proven scorers (even more so when playing with point guards of a high basketball I.Q.) who also get after it defensively. They're not the flashiest front court, but for a point guard of Wall's caliber they should sufficiently compliment his open court style of play and win some games. The biggest questions for Wall this season is if he can effectively run a half-court offense with this ensemble and, of course, if he's gained anymore mastery of the long ball in the off season (Wall shot an abysmal 0.071% from 3 last season... holy shit).
     Despite the fact that Washington fans anticipate more wins out of their team this season, there are still no false expectations for the Wizards to suddenly become an elite team in the Eastern Conference--the fact that I'm predicting them to finish with a winning record is farfetched to begin with. Wall's likely starting backcourt partner, Bradley Beal, is entering his rookie year and with that territory comes a wide margin for error. Also, everybody watch out for AJ Price!! Okay, so not really, but he was one of my buddy's favorite UConn players a few years ago (you're welcome, Smeen) and will probably be one of the better perimeter defenders you'll see backing up Wall this season... But more importantly, if the expectations of the Wizards aren't too high and aren't too low, where exactly should they finish? With this cast the Wizards should be able to vie for the 8th seeded playoff spot in the Eastern Conference (followed by a prompt sweep from the Miami Heat). However, I say "should" because the Milwaukee Bucks will also be gunning for that same playoff spot and boast an equally-as-talented roster.

Charlotte Bobcats (finishes 20-62)

Finishes for 14th in the Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 4th in the Southeast.

     This team was born to play defense...but not much else. Unlike last season, the Bobcats won't finish with the worst record in the league, but they sure as hell aren't getting into the playoffs this season either. It really is a shame when you take a look at all of the defensive specialists this team has assembled--they sport two of the league's better shot-blockers in Bismack Biyombo and Tyrus Thomas, and with the 2nd pick in the 2012 Draft they chose Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, whose lock down defense and slashing ability many have compared to Scottie Pippen's. Brendan Haywood is also a serviceable big body who can troll the paint, but also leaves much to be desired on offense. Thomas and Biyombo are not particularly polished on the offensive end either, so that leaves the lion's share of the scoring burden to fall on the rookie Kidd-Gilchrist and Charlotte's backcourt. Now according to ESPN's depth chart, Ramon Sessions is projected to be the starting point guard this season, but after last season's fiasco of watching him disappear in the Lakers' offense and inability to guard anybody, I just don't see how you couldn't give the starting job to Kemba Walker. I mean, come on--Sessions couldn't get his shit together playing with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum for Christ's sake! Then again, Walker may be kept as a reserve to provide instant offense off of the bench, which the Bobcats desperately need. However, his playmaking ability, quickness, and confidence with the ball are all qualities Sessions does not bring to the table. I would expect Walker to stay on the floor in late game situations and perhaps play more minutes than Sessions, but unless he's made great strides in the offseason Walker will not be a huge deciding factor in games.
     The only player on this team who has proven capable of averaging 20+ points is Ben Gordon, but unfortunately he hasn't been that Ben Gordon since his days with Chicago. Talent-wise, this Charlotte team is comparable to last year's Detroit team, which Gordon (12.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists/game in '11-'12) all but disappeared on, so it will be interesting to see how relevant or irrelevant he makes himself this season. Moreover, Gerald Henderson, who is projected to back Gordon up, is coming off his best statistical season in nearly every category (15.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists/game in '11-'12).  Additionally, Henderson at 6'5, 215 lbs. is more versatile at defending the league's larger guards and small forwards than Gordon at 6'3, 200 lbs. can handle. But... speaking bluntly, whether you start Henderson or Gordon, Walker or Sessions, at the end of the day, this team isn't going to win many games. Believe that. The most any Bobcats fan can hope is that the coaches play the younger duo of Henderson and Walker so that they gain experience and just maybe Charlotte gets lucky in the next Lottery. Better luck next year 'Cats...your new jerseys are kinda fresh by the way, if that's any consolation.