NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Central Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Central Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Central Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day: My prediction for the Wizards to make the playoffs last week. Up until recently, it was unclear how much of the beginning of the season John Wall would miss, but apparently it will be at least a month until he returns sometime in December. And of course in Wizardsland, when it rains, it pours: Nene is also out with plantar fasciitis--an injury with a recovery time that is impossible to predict. On the upside, Wall being out will allow top rookie Bradley Beal more time on the floor and more opportunities with the ball in his hands. I am going to stick to my guns by saying that they will still make the playoffs at the 8th-seed, but they're definitely going to be looking like a steamy reindeer turd (à la the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats) for the beginning of the season. 

     Outside of the Indiana Pacers, the Central Division this season will not pose much of a threat to the rest of the league until Derrick Rose rejoins the Chicago Bulls sometime in February. Teams like the Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers are still in the process of building around their Lottery picks of Greg Monroe (Detroit) and Kyrie Irving (Cleveland). However, instead of bringing in veteran players to excel these teams into playoff contenders, both Detroit and Cleveland have taken the longer and more traditional route of letting their young franchise players make mistakes, enduring losing seasons, and bringing in complementary pieces with high draft picks. This approach worked brilliantly with the Oklahoma City Thunder--it took several seasons of losing records to eventually surround Kevin Durant with players like Russell Westbrook (the 4th pick in '08), Serge Ibaka (the 24th pick in '08) and James Harden (the 3rd pick in '09) and even more time for them to become a competitive and cohesive unit. According to http://en.hispanosnba.com/teams/comparison, with an average age of 25.2, the Pistons are the 6th youngest team in the NBA this season, and the Cavaliers at 24.3 are the 3rd youngest--so presumably, it will take a few seasons for these teams to start playing winning basketball. On the other hand, in order to vie for a playoff spot, the Milwaukee Bucks have decided to forego drafting players around Brandon Jennings (who everyone agrees slipped through the cracks at the 10th pick in the 2009 Draft--I will never forgive the Knicks for drafting Jordan Hill ahead of both Jennings AND Eric Gordon). The real question is, will a training camp and full preseason with the newly acquired Monta Ellis position the Bucks to make the playoffs? The short answer is no. Come April, the balanced and well-paced Pacers and the defensively bullish Bulls will be the only Central Divisions reps making it into the postseason... and by then the league should seriously be re-evaluating the Coach of the Year award for guys who may not have the best record, but still get results without their franchise player (read: Tom Thibodeau).

Cleveland Cavaliers (finishes 30-52)

Finishes for 13th in Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Central.

     According to ESPN's depth chart, Dion Waiters is listed as the 3rd string shooting guard behind C.J. Miles and Daniel "Boobie" Gibson. As a 'Cuse fan, I'm upset. As a basketball fan, I'm downright offended. Waiters was the 4TH PICK of this last draft class with the intention of creating a one-two punch in an explosive backcourt combo of Waiters and Kyrie Irving. The Cavs are not going to be good this season, so they might as well start their Lottery pick or give him ample playing time because neither C.J. Miles (7-year veteran) nor Daniel Gibson (6-year veteran) are getting any better. To be honest, I feel really bad for Kyrie Irving. He's already one of the more efficient point guards in game and even flirted with 50-40-90 splits in his rookie season (that's 50% FG shooting, 40% 3-point shooting and 90% free throw shooting for you newbies out there--those are Steve Nash-like stats). Aside from his wise shot selection and efficiency, Irving's best quality is his playmaking ability. Unfortunately, though the Cavs have post players and swingmen who can rebound, contest shots, and cause turnovers, none of these guys can put the ball in the hoop from further than 5 feet away (except for Omri Casspi who inexplicably lost his touch after landing on the Cavs. #Clevelandproblems). This leaves Irving little to work with when setting the table, so I expect the Cavaliers to be among the bottom of the barrel in points per game this season. It'll be interesting to see if Irving can become a better defender, as well. Soo who does that leave that the Cavs can count on...? Uhh, lets see...hmm... Daniel Gibson? Nahh, he hasn't been relevant since that run he had against the Pistons in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals (though it was his rookie season)...  Soooo, Luke Walton? Spare me... wow, well this is just a shit-fest. F**k it, I give up, this team is doomed. I hope Irving and Waiters hoist up 50 shots a game between the two of them. Not because it would be entertaining, but just because it's the right thing to do.

Detroit Pistons (finishes 32-50)

Finishes for 11th in Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 4th in the Central.

     I really like Brandon Knight. I watched him light it up at Kentucky and saw him both thrive and struggle during his rookie season last year. That being said, I don't believe his NBA ceiling is as high as Detroit fans hope. Simply put, he's a shooting guard in a point guard's body. Yet, he's not the first of his kind to enter the NBA--Stephen Curry was also a shooting guard in a point guard's body upon entering the NBA. The difference here is that Curry was forced play the point guard position during his junior year at Davidson before entering the draft...and he's just naturally a phenomenal passer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glqszwfzFoA. The secret behind his passing skills is simply that Curry has superior court vision. I am not entirely sure that that is something that can be taught. Though the Pistons will not be winning many games this season, between Rodney Stuckey, Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Tayshaun Prince, Corey Maggette, (yeah, he's still around), and Charlie Villanueva (he has no eyebrows!! Can't Anthony Davis transplant the middle part of his brow to poor guys like Charlie??), there's more than enough firepower here to get an idea of Knight's ability as a floor general. With Ben Gordon gone, he'll get the chance.  Regardless, the meat and potatoes of this team is going to come from the middle. Greg Monroe just keeps improving. ALL of his numbers are significantly up from his rookie season (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4260/greg-monroe) and he only continues to improve. He's already one of the better passing big men in the game. Drafting Andre Drummond was the perfect compliment to Monroe's game, which is somewhat lacking when it comes to blocking shots. Averaging 2.7 blocks per game at UConn, Drummond was drafted with the 9th pick in the 2012 Draft for his ability to alter shots at the rim with his 7'6 wingspan. Drummond and Monroe will make the Pistons' front court a dangerous tandem to compete against in just a few years. 

Milwaukee Bucks (finishes 33-49)

Finishes for 10th in Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Central.

     I'm not sure how many teams should be "Fearing the Deer" this season. Aside from the explosive backcourt duo of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, it kind of looks like the Bucks assembled their entire front court of Samuel Dalembert (age 31), Drew Gooden (age 31), and Mike Dunleavy (age 32) from the NBA Thrift Store ("Where Bargains Happen"). At this point in their careers, all of these players should be backing up younger players who are developing their potential. John Henson was a stud at North Carolina last year and averaged 13.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 2.9 BPG while shooting .500 from the field--why would you not start him over Drew Gooden? Oh, because you're trying to make the playoffs. Well unless Jennings and Ellis average 45 PPG between the two of them (and I wouldn't put it past them), I don't see this happening. The only reason I don't believe in their ability to get the Bucks into the playoffs is because Ellis couldn't do it with Stephen Curry. Sorry to bring him up twice in the same blog, but Curry is every bit the player that Jennings is and probably a better defender. Admittedly, Curry did get banged up a bit, but even during stretches of good health, he and Ellis often got in each other's way. This is because both of these players constantly needed the ball in their hands. Barring Ellis becoming a spot-up shooter in the offseason, who comes off screens and plays a Ray Allen-esque shooting guard style, Jennings and Ellis will continue to face the same problems. The very thing that makes Monta Ellis, Monta Ellis, is his need to dominate the ball and take 25 shots a game. And even with Jennings and Ellis both taking turns shooting the ball, I doubt the rest of the team is going to be inspired to play defense while watching their backcourt putting up shots like they're on the AND1 Tour. For Milwaukee to have any hope of making the playoffs, they'll need to do two things. The first is to give Ersan Ilyasova big minutes. According to ESPN, as a rookie Ilyasova "averaged 14.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.0 3-pointers per game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the line in 41 starts." Mike Dunleavy will not be giving you that this season. The second thing the Bucks will have to do is get Luc Richard Mbah a Moute healthy again, as fast as possible. He's one of the best lockdown defenders in the league and won't mind watching Jennings and Ellis take circus shots every game. Either way, this team is going to struggle--when facing the Milwaukee Bucks this season, I think most teams' attitude will be "Spear the Deer."

Chicago Bulls (finishes 45-37)

Finishes for 7th in Eastern Conference.
Finishes for 2nd in the Central.

     Who doesn't like Derrick Rose? I'm pretty sure if you did a poll of the most likable/genuine superstars in the NBA, Rose would win hands down (though if you've been following the 2012 Presidential Election, you'd know that apparently all polls are no longer reliable). Rose is the player Oklahoma City fans wish Russell Westbrook would be--an incomparably explosive point guard who gets his teammates involved and takes well-advised shots. Though Westbrook draws comparisons to Rose, there really is no player like him in the NBA and Chicago will sorely miss him this season. Thankfully, they're blessed with a man who I believe is currently the best coach in the NBA. Good 'ol Tommy Thibodeau. If you want to know why I think he's best coach, well, just look at the Bulls' roster--its chocked with defensive players, none of which can create their own shot with the exception of Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer (who has been a massive disappointment after signing that FAT contract). And the funny thing is, I'm not entirely sure how many of these "defensive players" were actually considered defensive specialists before Thibodeau got through with them. Joakim Noah is the only one I can think of. I saw Taj Gibson play for USC and I don't recall him being able to defend almost every position with the same ferocity that he does now. The Bench Mob doesn't become the Bench Mob without Thibodeau. To put it another way... consider all that Thibodeau has accomplished with the Bulls... now imagine him coaching the Clippers, or god forbid, the Heat? In that kind of scenario, the "not one, not two, not three..." promise LeBron made of championships actually becomes a viable threat (suck it, Spoelstra). So what's gonna happen with the Bulls this season? Noah, Boozer, Deng, and Gibson are going to bang bodies and throw elbows in the paint for 48 minutes every night, to the point where they pretty much just WEAR DOWN every front court they match up with. Kirk Hinrich will ideally redeem the past few subpar seasons he's had, run the offense, and get burned on defense. Marco Belinelli and Nate Robinson will come off the bench and quickly become fan favorites as the New Bench Mob that hits ridiculous threes and every now and then, Nate gets a dunk that blows the roof off of the United Center. Richard Hamilton, to the dismay of everyone, continues to be Richard Hamilton--but granted, he IS 34 (that's like 45 in NBA years, unless you're Kobe Bryant... Go to Germany, Rip!!). And the most important person to this team, Tom Thibodeau will win Coach of the Year... ok, maybe that's a stretch. 

Indiana Pacers (finishes 49-33)

Finishes for 4th in Eastern Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Central.

     I just want to start out by giving a shout out to the two New York Natives on the squad, Roy Hibbert from Queens and Lance Stephenson from Brooklyn (brrap! brrap!). I know they won't read this, but they would understand. Indiana does not have an All-Star at any one position (I don't care if Roy Hibbert made the All-Star team last year, he averaged 12.8 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 2.0 BPG... those aren't All-Star numbers and the blocks per game would be impressive if he wasn't 7'2. The East had no good big men/the actual good ones--is Brook Lopez good?--were injured). But the All-Starless Pacers boast what I believe to be one of the best second string line-ups in the league. D.J. Augustin is a quality back up point guard, Gerald Green is an athletic wing defender who had one of the best in-game dunks I've ever seen (NOT exaggerating, check it out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOzo4pHTZ-M), Tyler Hansbrough is a high energy defender/rebounder with a bit of a midrange game, and Ian Mahinmi can swat shots and miss lay-ups. The X-Factor in this 2nd string is Lance "Born Ready" Stephenson... I really regret the trajectory of Stephenson's career to be honest. Growing up as a Brooklynite, I used to catch the Lincoln High Railsplitters compete on MSG for the Public School Athletic League championships almost every year--they were always a lock. I saw Sebastian Telfair play and I saw him become regarded as the "best Railsplitter to ever play for Lincoln High," even in the wake of Stephon Marbury. Then I saw Stephenson play. Not only was he ranked as one of the top 24 high school players in the nation as a rising sophomore, he also surpassed Telfair's legacy as "the greatest Railsplitter ever." He even had his own online reality show titled "Born Ready"--titled after the nickname that streetball legend Bobbito Garcia knighted him with. I thought the sky was the limit for Stephenson, but I believe he received this fame and attention far too early and it ultimately stifled his growth and derailed his attitude. By the end of his senior year in high school, a player who should've been able to play anywhere in the country, Stephenson found it difficult to find a coach who wanted to work with him and his notorious bag of drama. This resulted in a subpar freshman year at Cincinnati and a late 2nd round drafting in 2010. I have no inside information regarding Stephenson's improvement performance-wise, nor any news of attitude adjustment. But I WILL say, that being the 2nd string shooting guard for a Pacers team that pushed the current NBA Champs to a 6-game series in the playoffs last year, is the most responsibility he's been given since joining the league and I hope he makes the most out of it. Behind the Miami Heat, this might be the most athletic team in the East--George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Gerald Green: all of these guys like to get out and run the open floor, not to mention they're all superior defenders and Granger can fill it up from distance. Combined with a capable passer in Hibbert at center and David West being able to stretch the defense with his jump shot, this team can play both fast paced, as well as the slowed down half court game. The only reason I cannot put them higher than the 4th seed is because I sincerely believe there are better teams in the East, but I would definitely not want to play against these guys in the playoffs. The average age of the Pacers is 25.6 years old--this is exactly the type of team that can wear down veteran teams (Boston and New York, beware) in a seven game series. Believe that.