NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Pacific Division

NBA 2012-2013 Preview - Pacific Division

By Rico Bautista

Derp of the Day:  Hurricane Sandy for (potentially) delaying some of the NBA Tip Off games tomorrow. I don't actually see this happening, yet none of Commissioner Stern's decisions surprise me these days.

     The Pacific Division is unique in that it features the NBA's two most competitive leaders, as well as constant MVP candidates. Chris Paul, who has never won the MVP award (but has come damn close), will be pitted against a team that features two former MVP winners, as well as a three-time Defensive Player of the Year. God help him.

Golden State Warriors (finishes 21-61)

Finishes for 15th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 5th in the Pacific.

     This season's Golden State roster has undoubtedly improved from last year... but a turd sandwich with cheese is still a turd sandwich. Personally, I've always found it difficult to have confidence in players with a history of injuries... especially when those players suffer repeat injuries. Golden State's two most important players this season, Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, have suffered a litany of injuries throughout their careers and usually get hit by the injury bug right when they happen to be playing their best. For Golden State to scrap their way into an 8th-seed playoff spot in a highly competitive Western Conference, these two will need to remain healthy all season.
     Bogut's injury woes are most likely the biggest reason for the Warriors' signing of Carl Landry. Though David Lee has always been a strong rebounder, he's never been particularly effective at defending pick-and-roll offenses or protecting the rim. Andris Biedrins used to be a serviceable center, but his production has scaled wayyyy back of late and his free throw shooting makes him a liability to keep on the floor. Not only did Biedrins struggle to get to the free throw line last season (he took only 9 free throws in 47 GAMES), but only managed to make one. Though a bit undersized, Landry provides a hard-nosed work ethic on the defensive end every time he takes the floor and is as efficient a post-scorer as they come (Landry shoots .535 from the field for his career). His game isn't pretty--he has a burly, bowl-you-over style of scoring the ball, but he's a great locker room guy and has been described as "The Ultimate Team Player" in this highlight reel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IMoChYVqs8. Admittedly, I question the sanity of anyone who would actually take the time to put together a Carl Landry highlight reel. The Warriors also made the crafty insurance-decision of bringing in Jarrett Jack to back up Curry, which may potentially be their wisest offseason move should Curry re-injure himself. Jack is coming off of his best scoring (15.6 ppg) and assist (6.3 apg) performance of his 8-year career, so there was no better time to recruit him.
     Golden State's second big X-factor after Curry's/Bogut's health will be the production of second-year shooting stud Klay Thompson and lottery-pick Harrison Barnes. Should either of these players slump as starters, the Warriors have a reliable backup in Brandon Rush who shot .452 from 3 last year--good for the 6th highest percentage in the league. I don't imagine Richard Jefferson getting played over Barnes very often... At the end of the day, if Curry and Bogut don't stay healthy this season is a wash. Believe that.

Sacramento Kings (finishes 33-49)

Finishes for 12th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 4th in the Pacific.

     This team's issue is attitude, not talent. Enter Aaron Brooks. Brooks has always played with maturity and professionalism and this team needs those qualities in spades. I was actually somewhat shocked when the Kings of all teams were the ones to pick him up--Brooks' patience on offense and his 3-point range makes him an asset to almost any team. His playing off of Luis Scola single-handedly kept the Rockets relevant a few years ago after Yao Ming's collapse, so clearly the dude can ball.

     You know who else can ball? Not Tyreke Evans. Or at least not since Evans' rookie year, which was hands-down his best season as he averaged 20-5-5. Since then he's been in decline, but the Kings have also moved him from the position where he was best suited. I am not entirely sure at what point the Kings' coaching staff decided that Evans needed to be moved, but a 6'6 point guard in the NBA should not be easily discarded. If the Kings intend to utilize Evans to his full potential, they'll give him some opportunities at the 1 when Isaiah Thomas and Aaron Brooks are not on the floor. All of Jimmer Fredette's minutes at point guard should be immediately allocated to Evans.

    Speaking of things that should happen, the entire league should be terrified of DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson. If you're not, then you're in for a damn surprise which will come in the form of soul-crushing dunks, shot swats, and the best offensive-rebounding pair in the NBA. Hide yo' kids and hide yo' wife. That's all I have to say about these two.

   My biggest concern for Sacramento is... why doesn't anyone talk about Marcus Thornton? Had he not been on my fantasy team last year, I wouldn't have even known who he was. Thornton actually had such a strong season that I somehow traded him and Paul Millsap for Steve Nash and Brandon Jennings (though why no one vetoed that trade is beyond me). Should Thornton improve his field goal percentage, he could be a long shot for the All-Star team.

     Secretly my hope for the Kings is that they eventually get moved out of Sacramento to Las Vegas. Even if they were bad, who wouldn't want to go see the Las Vegas Kings play? The whole arena could be designed like a casino! Basically, whenever anyone starts speculating on new city possibilities for a franchise to relocate to, you know that team is in for a dismal season.

Phoenix Suns (finishes 37-45)

Finishes for 10th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 3rd in the Pacific. 

"It's much different being The Man than One-of-The-Men."--Chris Webber on Goran Dragic's new responsibilities in Phoenix this season.

     For a team whose hallmark was based around one of the best passing-point guards in NBA history, the Suns' have not strayed too far from this identity. Filling the void left by Steve Nash is Nash's understudy, Goran Dragic... But the man who will eventually take the reins as Phoenix's future point guard is 13th pick Kendall Marshall--widely considered the best passing-point guard in the draft (Marshall averaged 8.0 assists per game in his two seasons at North Carolina and led the NCAA with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.48-to-1). If you missed catching this kid in college, this is worth a look: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fucUOlrD4vM (Also, the song is dope).
     Losing Channing Frye for the season hurts this Suns team. They're underwhelming in the 3-point shooting category and have learned to lean on Frye's ability to stretch the defense. Having said that, Luis Scola is an upgrade from Frye in almost every aspect. Though he doesn't bring Frye's same range, Scola can still make mid-range shots and more importantly, he does all of the blue-collar work that coaches love to see from a big man--he fights for boards, sets solid screens, and generally sacrifices his body and shot opportunities for the good of the team. Markieff Morris will also have opportunities to prove himself with Frye's absence. Though not as accurate, Morris still sports 3-point range and is a markedly superior athlete to Frye. But make no mistake--the Suns' most important interior presence this season will be Marcin Gortat, who proved he could be accountable on both ends of the floor last season.
     Fortunately the most exciting development in Phoenix this season will not be the point guard battle, nor will it be the meshing of Scola/Gortat. It will be the resurgence of Michael Beasley. The 2nd overall pick of the 2008 Draft coasted behind the leadership of Dwyane Wade for a few seasons before getting moved to Minnesota and playing uninspired basketball behind a developing Kevin Love. Now he comes to a team that is practically begging for him to shoot the ball and I expect Beasley to take full advantage of the green-light he's been given this season. Last Friday Beasley dropped 29 points on the Denver Nuggets. Measuring a player's performance in a mere preseason game is somewhat pointless--I'm well aware. However, that night I noticed that Beasley took multiple jump shots that had the kind of friendly rolls you only see from someone with an elite shooting touch (Beasley shot 13-for-21 on the night). It was the most confident shooting performance I had seen him display since his days at Kansas State and he looked almost Carmelo-esque. Everything was dropping for him. Fantasy players take note.
     Wesley Johnson, the 4th pick of the 2010 Draft, will also have an opportunity for redemption on this Phoenix team... but averaging only 7.7 points per game over his first two seasons doesn't exactly set the bar very high. Shannon Brown was a solid contributor last year (he averaged 11.0 ppg over 23 minutes of play), so perhaps a new city combined with competing for floor time with Brown will bring the best out in Johnson... or just cause him to disappear entirely. Any which way you look at it, this team is headed for a bumpy season followed by a lottery-pick.
     By the way... LOL: Jermaine O'Neal and Sebastian Telfair are on this team. Frankly, I'd be shocked if they averaged 28 minutes per game between the two of them.

Los Angeles Clippers (finishes 49-33)

Finishes for 6th in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 2nd in the Pacific.

     Instead of writing a segment on this year's Los Angeles Clippers, for the sake of entertainment and brevity I have decided to just include the quick notes I made and planned on discussing up to this point:

     1) The Clippers will have problems defending the ball, not scoring it.

     2) DeAndre Jordan doesn't need to become a better scorer. Is he extremely limited in his scoring ability? Yes. Would he be more useful if he could make shots that were further than 5 feet from the basket? Yes. But this team is chocked with guys who can score the ball. What they desperately need is someone who can be an intimidator at the rim.

     3) I can see Lamar Odom being useful for 15 minutes a game.

     4) Barring substantial offseason improvement, Blake Griffin's free throw shooting (.521 in 2011-12) will be the difference between a few potential wins or losses this season. This guy always goes to the line. For midlevel playoff teams like the Clippers, Memphis, and Denver, a few losses could be the difference between playing the Thunder/Lakers in the first round, or playing each other.


     5) Caron Butler's stank eye.

     6) Imagine how good this team could be with a decent coach!

     7) The Clippers are the most stacked team in the NBA at all of the perimeter positions: 1. Paul/Bledsoe. 2. Billups/Crawford. 3. Caron Butler/Grant Hill/Matt Barnes. Any problems they face this season will most likely emanate from Blake and DeAndre.

Los Angeles Lakers (finishes 55-27)

Finishes for 2nd in the Western Conference.

Finishes for 1st in the Pacific.

     Not to be a hater, but I'm pretty sick of reading/hearing about Dwight Howard and the Lakers, so I'm going to make this quick. Lets take care of the obvious facts first: The Lakers are going to be good this year. At worst, they'll get bounced out of the Western Conference Finals. I don't want to speculate on how good this team is going to be because there's no point--Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, and Dwight Howard are all as professional and hardworking as hardworking professional athletes come. In particular, Bryant and Nash are two of the most competitive NBA players I've ever seen play and are renowned for playing through injuries. This team is going to have a fantastic regular season. The postseason is a whole different ballgame. The postseason is when I plan on following the Lakers's media coverage again--especially if the Lakers lose the lead in a playoffs series. And you should all follow suit. Because when that happens (and it will), the Lakers will be picked apart by sports media outlets from coast to coast and the notoriously catty habit of finger-pointing will begin. So lets play the "Blame-Game," shall we? Will it be Gasol's fault because of his "soft" style of play that Kobe has complained about for back-to-back postseasons? Will it be Howard's fault because he couldn't make his free-throws? Will it be Nash's fault because he can't stay in front of his own shadow, let alone the likes of Russell Westbrook? Or will it be Kobe's fault because he shot too much and alienated everyone with his hyper competitiveness? Personally, I'm already blaming the Lakers for keeping Ron Artest in the starting line-up: HE SHOT .367 IN THE PLAYOFFS LAST SEASON!!! Aside from defending the ball, Ron Artest brings almost nothing to the table these days. The sooner the Lakers come to this conclusion, the sooner they can start Devin Ebanks, the sooner Ebanks can make costly mistakes, the sooner Kobe can tear his confidence apart, and the sooner we all get to hear about it in the news.
     Also, can we talk about the Lakers' bench? Antawn Jamison was a great pick-up for both ends of the floor and nobody on this roster deserves a championship more than he does (with the exception of Steve Nash). Jodie Meeks was another brilliant find. He's no Kobe, but he'll be backing up the Black Mamba for extended periods and in the Lakers' new Princeton offense, which utilizes a variety of cuts and screens, it will help that Meeks shot 53.3% off pick-and-rolls last season. The rest of their bench? Steve Blake, Jordan Hill, Chris Duhon... if the NBA playoffs were changed into a pick-up basketball tournament with all of the best players picking their teammates and bench, nobody would pick these guys. Steve Blake looks like a former towel boy who got good at shooting threes by practicing after the game when nobody was watching. This is 38-year old Steve Nash's backup. Enjoy the regular season, Laker fans. Lets talk again in April.